Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the unraveling of America’s traditional expertise-based foreign policy as political loyalists reshape global engagement, while a revived “concert of powers” vision signals a shift toward great-power accommodation and...

The Markets at a Junction: The Dollar, Seneca, the Flows of Capital, and Japan, Part II

When a market (or any institution) lacks an anchor, a myriad of negative repercussions unfold, starting with the lack of tranquility. The absence of the latter creates uncertainty, and the effect of the uncertainty is turmoil. In the following graph, we see the impact...

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and rhetoric, especially towards China and the EU, are major drivers of continued market uncertainty and volatility over the past two weeks. This is evidenced by the elevated VIX (hitting a high of over 53...

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine how Europe’s strategic identity is being tested as it stands at a crossroads between deeper alignment with a U.S.-led alliance and economic entanglement with China, amid rising tariff battles and an evolving doctrine of...

CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East/North Africa Last week, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared the seizure of extensive Gaza territory, creating "buffer zones" and effectively isolating Rafah, a city once sheltering over 250,000 Palestinians, with military maps showing a...

CROSSROADS: US, Europe, China & India

North America On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariff plan, imposing 10%–50% tariffs on nearly all foreign imports using a controversial formula based on trade surpluses, only to contradict prior statements over the...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global Equities Rebound Global equities gained this week, attempting to recover some losses from last week's correction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased 5.70% and 7.29%, respectively, and the Dow Jones rose 4.95% on the week. The U.S....

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the accelerating disintegration of the postwar global order as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to unravel decades of economic integration and strain the transatlantic alliance, while scholars warn of a...

The Wooden Nickel: Tarrified

The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than formal proclamations or projections....

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive global tariffs, imposed across virtually all the United States’ major trading partners, have ignited fears of a full-blown trade war and potential global recession. The tariffs could raise prices, invite retaliation, slow...

Weekly Market Update

Market Action Global equities saw little change this week, but the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped 8 basis points to 2.05%. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell almost $5 to $55. 60 while volatility rose from 12.7 to 13.3, as...

Weekly Market Update

Market Action Global equities were firmer on the week as major US indices reached record highs, with both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average marking new milestones above 3,000 and 27,000, respectively. The yield on the US 10-year note rose 18...

When the Rabbits Get the Guns

Data from around the world show that economic activity is slowing down. At the same time, the trade uncertainty exacerbates the concerns that a slowdown crowned with an intensifying trade war during geopolitical disputes could derail growth and expectations at a time...

Weekly Market Update

Market Action Global equities were slightly lower on the week, with markets awaiting news from the ongoing G20 summit in Japan. Yields on the US 10-year Treasury note dipped 6 basis points to 2.00%, compared with last Friday, while the price of a barrel of West Texas...

Weekly Market Update

Market Action Global equities rose last week on hopes that looser monetary policy will keep the global economic expansion intact and on news that US – China trade talks will resume at next week's G20 meeting. Yields on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 2% late...

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