Headwinds vs. Tailwinds: An Initial Assessment of Undercurrent Trends Affecting the Market Outlook for 2019
As we are approaching the start of 2019, we could identify five important tailwinds and an equal number of headwinds going into play in the new year. Overall, we believe – at this stage – that the tailwinds will prevail. Let’s start then with the tailwinds. The first...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities closed mostly lower for the week amid continued concerns over slowing global economic growth and the chaotic Brexit process playing out between the United Kingdom and the European Union. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined...
Victor (as in Frankenstein), Prometheus (and Pandora), and Sisyphus (and the Rock): Defiance, Derivatives, and Midas
Victor Frankenstein was the creator of the monster and not the monster itself. Prometheus’ gift of fire to humans was offset by Pandora’s box. Sisyphus’ condemnation to keep rolling the rock up the slope may not be as absurd as it initially looks. Before we integrate...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action US equities regained some ground this past week while European and Asian benchmarks closed fairly flat on the week. The US 10-year Treasury note slightly declined to 3.19% while the price of WTI crude oil continued to fall, dropping to $59.91 a barrel...
The Financial Ecosystem and the Dollar Trajectory: International Reserves, the Eurodollar Market, and Fiscal Policies
The international financial system is based on credit. At the heart of that system is the bond market whose global size exceeds $100 trillion. Just in the US, the bond market is above $40 trillion, and the US Treasuries play a central role in that given that they are...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action This week global equities clawed back some of the losses posted during a volatile October. Still, the month was one of the worst for equities since the financial crisis, as markets were affected by concerns over rising interest rates, the slowing Chinese...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month: North America US President Trump has succeeded in one of his major goals: renegotiating NAFTA, now known as USMCA. USMCA is a standard modern trade agreement requiring a higher minimum...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stock market gains have largely been eliminated for the year, indexes are in correction territory, and several S&P sectors - namely Communication Services, Energy, Financials, and Materials - have declined 10-15% in the last three months as shown on...
Reflections on the Market’s Turmoil
Yesterday, while I was boarding an overseas flight, the markets were experiencing significant turmoil. During the long flight, I had the opportunity to contemplate the causes of the recent turmoil. The list below, while not necessarily exhaustive, covers the most...
Repricing Expectations: Reconciling Market Disruptions and the Earnings Momentum
Yesterday the Nasdaq index touched correction territory by dropping more than 10% since its recent highs. Should we be expecting a correction or even a bear market for the rest of the indexes as well? Our opinion is that the equities are going through a repricing...
