Weekly Market Update
Market Action The stock market gave back 25% of last week's gains as investors watched US-China trade tensions. Both the Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq lost 0.7%, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.2%. Treasury yields retreated from multi-year highs earlier...
The Revenge of the Long-Term Cycle: Portfolio Enhancement
In late 1999/early 2000, the excitement of the internet and the dot-com exuberance attracted capital away from investments that require a medium to long-term perspective. The result was that supplies dropped while demand was rising. Welcome to the revenge of...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities showed a solid advance on the week, helping push the major US benchmarks back into positive territory for the year to date. Crude oil prices reached their highest levels since December 2014. President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015...
Dollar Trajectory and Geopolitical Tensions: The New Thucydides Route
The dollar has been getting stronger at a time when the Chinese have started to price oil in renminbi. In simple statecraft language, such action by the Chinese could just be perceived as unacceptable at a time when the US trade deficit with China stands at such high...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Argentina’s central bank shocked markets by raising interest rates to 40 percent on Friday. The peso moved nearly 5 percent higher to 21.17 against the dollar, but remains down 15 percent so far this year. Argentina’s treasury minister said the treasury...
Market Isosthenia in a World of Etatism: The Triumph of Illiberalism
We live by appearances and as we pretend that all things are getting better and that debts do not matter we are becoming villains perpetuating a culture of Pyrrhonism[1] where isostheneia (a situation of equal strength) implants and imputes in us a mentality of...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities were little changed on the week, recovering ground lost at midweek. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose three basis points from last Friday, briefly topping 3% on Wednesday (the first time that threshold had been breached in...
CROSSROADS
Important issues to watch around the globe: United States - North Korea summit Arguably the most important geopolitical news of this month is the possibility of a summit between the US and North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has announced that he will no...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities rose modestly this week, boosted by broad strength in commodities and a strong start to earnings season. The blended earnings growth rate, which combines the S&P 500 companies that have reported results with estimates for those that...
Leverage, Valuations, and Earnings: Algorithmic Complexities, Monetary Gamesmanship, and Capital Protection
This year’s market gyrations should be viewed under the microscope of leverage. When we do that as the first figure shows below, then we can possibly start comprehending that in an environment of rising volatility, political instability, and geopolitical tensions,...
