Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month:

Global Impact: Trump’s Rhetoric Threatens the Rules Based Order

US President Trump has created global concerns over his imposition of tariffs on China, the EU, Canada, Japan, and Mexico over the past few months.

The Trump administration has flirted with withdrawing from the WTO after threats by the aforementioned countries to challenge the US through the dispute settlement mechanism in the WTO.

A US withdrawal from the WTO, however unlikely, could prove very disruptive to the US export sector and global supply chains, affecting all major industries.

The China-EU summit on July 16th illustrated that WTO reform is necessary and that there is a possibility of further opening up of Chinese markets to European investment.

US-Russia: To Helsinki and Beyond?

Last week, US President Trump met with President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. In addition to rejecting the US intelligence community’s assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 US election, President Trump had a two-hour meeting with Putin on which the US State Department is yet to be briefed.

President Trump’s remarks came just days after Special Counsel Robert Mueller indicted twelve Russian intelligence officers in the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton campaign.

US Lawmakers are moving to sanction the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to thwart Russia’s energy presence in Europe.

The US position over the Nord Stream pipeline could further damage relations with the EU, though analysts are right to question Europe’s energy dependence on Russia.

Implemented sanctions could affect major energy companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, OMV, Engie, and Uniper and Wintershall.

Heading Towards a Softer Brexit

The UK Government announced on July 24th that it plans to keep EU laws in place during its transition out of the EU beginning March 2019. The implementation period will last until 2020.

Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she would take control of the Brexit talks from this point forward. The pound rose after the news, with traders seeing it as an indicator of a softer Brexit. This announcement comes after Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned earlier this month.

The Brexit hardliners in Theresa May’s party have been critical of the Chequers Agreement signed earlier this month, which stressed that the UK would “maintain a common rulebook for all goods,” and that the borders between the UK and EU would be treated as a “combined customs territory.” The agreement also suggested the UK would still take into consideration EU laws, but that it would end the free movement of people.

Though this does not represent a final deal, the implications of the government’s position on Brexit are important: Theresa May is clearly working towards a soft Brexit whereby the UK maintains a very similar relationship to the EU that is already in place.

Turkey’s Economic Woes Worsened by Erdoğan’s Politics

President Erdoğan sacrificed the former deputy prime minister and ex-Merrill Lynch chief economist in favor of his son-in-law for Finance and Treasury Minister to manage the country’s waning economy.

Erdoğan has granted himself the right to hire the central bank governor, deputies, and monetary policy committee members for a four-year term.

Utilizing this power, Erdoğan has forgone interest rate hikes in search of short-term gain to the economy, which could spur higher inflation and moreover will fail to stop the plummeting of the Lira and the losses in the Turkish stock market.

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