The Financial Ecosystem and the Dollar Trajectory: International Reserves, the Eurodollar Market, and Fiscal Policies
The international financial system is based on credit. At the heart of that system is the bond market whose global size exceeds $100 trillion. Just in the US, the bond market is above $40 trillion, and the US Treasuries play a central role in that given that they are...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action This week global equities clawed back some of the losses posted during a volatile October. Still, the month was one of the worst for equities since the financial crisis, as markets were affected by concerns over rising interest rates, the slowing Chinese...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month: North America US President Trump has succeeded in one of his major goals: renegotiating NAFTA, now known as USMCA. USMCA is a standard modern trade agreement requiring a higher minimum...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stock market gains have largely been eliminated for the year, indexes are in correction territory, and several S&P sectors - namely Communication Services, Energy, Financials, and Materials - have declined 10-15% in the last three months as shown on...
Reflections on the Market’s Turmoil
Yesterday, while I was boarding an overseas flight, the markets were experiencing significant turmoil. During the long flight, I had the opportunity to contemplate the causes of the recent turmoil. The list below, while not necessarily exhaustive, covers the most...
Repricing Expectations: Reconciling Market Disruptions and the Earnings Momentum
Yesterday the Nasdaq index touched correction territory by dropping more than 10% since its recent highs. Should we be expecting a correction or even a bear market for the rest of the indexes as well? Our opinion is that the equities are going through a repricing...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action At Blacksummit we are monitoring a few important indices in order to observe market momentum and understand possible market patterns and direction. In an effort to comprehend if we are in the process of a market rotation (e.g. from growth into value)...
Ozymandias and our Great Circus: Ironies, Myths, and Realities
Percy Shelley’s poem titled “Ozymandias” is a sonnet, just a fourteen-line verse form that Petrarch, Spencer, and Shakespeare used during the Renaissance. Following Petrarch’s style, Shelley introduces an octave in the first eight lines which poses a question to be...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities suffered their biggest weekly decline since February, partly because of rising US bond yields. For months, US equities have ignored macro issues such as the deepening US-China trade rift and have advanced despite typically weak seasonal...
Trying to Make Sense of Recent Market Movements
Yesterday’s drop of more than 3% in equities generated concerns about experiencing a correction similar to the one that we saw earlier this year. The fact is that the market has declined by about 5% in the last five days, and tech-related shares have lost about 8.5%,...
