Weekly Market Update
Market Action The stock market’s streak of consecutive days without a 1% move down ended at 67 days, the longest streak on record. Politics is being blamed for the downturn as investors are reversing their “Trump trade” bets, fearing the President will not be able to...
Market Valuations and Reflationary Expectations: What Can we Learn from a London Art Exhibition?
A recent investors’ survey done by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that more and more investors believe that stocks are overvalued. Expectations about earnings, taxes, spending, and regulatory regime, have uplifted equities worldwide, but recently a sense of...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Federal Reserve proceeded with another rate hike this week, just as markets expected. Chair Janet Yellen cited confidence in the progression of the economy’s fundamentals as the reason for the rate hike while affirming the expectation for two...
From Convergence to Divergence: Emerging Markets in Expectation of Higher Rates
Over the course of the last few months, we observe that not only developed markets have been enjoying good returns, but also emerging markets rise along with them. As the following graph shows the Global PMI Index (signifying manufacturing activity) is close to its...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. added 235,000 jobs in February, far above the 198,000 that analysts and economists had estimated. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% while labor force participation and wages both increased. All eyes will now be on the Federal Reserve this...
Reflation Trades and Upbeat Sentiment: Rates, Oil, and the Containment of Risks
It seems that analysts around the world are singing from the same chorus book, called Reflation. If we could define the latter we would say that it refers to a cycle when incomes and spending are rising which in turn boost growth. It’s interesting to note that such...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Dow’s streak of closing at consecutive highs ended at 13 but shares still ended the week at further record levels. Markets added more than 1% on Wednesday following the President’s address to the nation as enthusiasm for prospective fiscal boosts and...
Has the Unleashing of Animal Spirits Time Arrived? A Little Caution due to the Doom Loop
A year ago equity and commodity markets were in a panic mode. Chinese tremors, fears of deflation, oil prices below $30 a barrel, declining commodity prices (such as copper), and corporate earnings recession had infused fear in the markets. Now, a year later we found...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
February 2017 For the first time in years, we see the possibility of an upside in global growth rather than the opposite. Stronger data keeps coming from the countries/regions that matter the most economically: the US, the EU, China and Asia. Therefore, (1) the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Dow Jones has hit 11 consecutive closing highs, a streak that hasn’t been seen since 1987. Plans for tax reform this summer and higher GDP growth goals from the administration have helped fuel the rally. A number of economic indicators buoyed...
