Shifting Regimes and Changing Winds: Reflections on Trade and Market Implications at the Dawn of a New Era
One of the main issues debated at the Davos conference this week is the possibility of a new trade regime, as President Trump takes office. Discontent with globalization and the talk – over a number of years – by the President himself, as well as by his designated...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Most major markets in the U.S., Europe and Asia slowed their rallies this week with U.K. the major exception. The country continues to benefit from a weaker pound lifting manufacturing and overall business activity. China’s trade surplus fell for the...
Investment Outlook 2017: Part II
In last week’s commentary we covered mainly the initial outlook for equities. In today’s post we would like to present an initial outlook for other markets such as bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Let’s start with the debt markets and the implications for...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The first trading week of 2017 picked up where 2016 ended. Markets continue to rally being led by cyclical sectors such as Technology and Consumer stocks. While the unemployment report of 159,000 new jobs in December was below expectations, a 2.9% wage...
An Initial Market Outlook for 2017: Part I
The only certain thing about a prognostication is that it will be wrong. Keeping that humble thought in mind, we offer our readers our initial thoughts on the markets’ trajectory for 2017, which of course need to be adjusted as the quarters of the year unfold and...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
December 2016 Just how bad was 2016? We won’t know until we can compare it to 2017! Despite the reality of better global living standards than ever before, today’s world (particularly in the West) is suffering from a prevailing sense of angst and frustration....
Meta-modernity Meets the Post-Literate World in the Era of Post-Truth: A Discussion among Cincinnatus, Empedocles, Virgil, Ibn Rushd, Hobbes, Spinoza, Canaletto, Doremus Jessup and Milton Friedman
As I was boarding my usual end-of-the-year overseas flight I could clearly hear the arguments of a heated debate: “Do values matter and are they supposed to create the rules or should the rules create the values of the world order?” Like in the years past I...
Mispricing Risk and Market Conditions at the Dawn of the New Year: Rules, Aleppo and the Banks of the Nile
Historically speaking credit markets serve as a reliable signal regarding global economic conditions. Tight spreads between corporate and government bonds have been indicating improving economic conditions, faster growth, higher incomes and profits and rising business...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action U.S. markets remained largely flat on the week as investors take a pause on the rally of the past several weeks. Volatility continues to stay muted as well. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected this week. Members of the Fed are...
Corporate Earnings Expectations and Market Multiples: Forthcoming Policies and Capital Cushions
Since the presidential election equity funds have experienced four consecutive weeks of inflows, while bond funds have been experiencing outflows. This makes sense if we consider the anticipated lower tax rates for corporations, and the incoming administration’s plans...
