Welcome to our monthly newsletter which covers key developments in major non-US markets. With this newsletter, we highlight corporate, debt, and monetary policy news in European, Asian, and Latin American markets. We end this piece with a spotlight on commodities.
European Markets
Corporate and Business News
- Bayer’s Roundup legal breakthrough fuels healthcare rally — A favorable U.S. Supreme Court ruling eased litigation concerns and supported a major restructuring of the company’s American operations.
- AI enthusiasm gives way to semiconductor valuation concerns — ASML’s upgraded sales outlook failed to prevent a sharp rotation out of European chipmakers, including ASMI, Soitec and STMicroelectronics.
- European takeover activity gathers momentum — Uber’s $14.8 billion bid for Delivery Hero and Apollo’s proposed £5.7 billion acquisition of easyJet highlighted renewed appetite for strategic consolidation.
- ABB makes its largest-ever acquisition — The $5.5 billion purchase of Rotork strengthened ABB’s automation portfolio, although the premium valuation overshadowed robust data-centre-driven orders and earnings.
- Defense contracts produce sharply divergent market winners — Germany’s frigate-programme switch punished Rheinmetall and benefited TKMS, while major Ukraine and NATO orders reinforced Saab’s growth momentum.
- Luxury-sector recovery remains uneven — Richemont’s jewellery-led sales beat revived investor confidence, while Burberry’s warning over weaker Middle Eastern tourist spending exposed persistent demand fragility.
Debt and Monetary Policy News
- Cooling inflation briefly restores the Bund rally — Euro-area inflation slowed more than expected to 2.8%, while lower energy prices pushed benchmark yields toward three-month lows and reduced expectations of an immediate ECB hike.
- Renewed energy shock revives ECB tightening risk — Escalating Gulf hostilities and rebounding oil and gas prices drove Bund yields higher, leaving a September rate increase almost fully priced.
- Germany’s fiscal expansion transforms the Bund-supply outlook — Berlin’s €203.6 billion borrowing plan, supporting substantially higher defense and infrastructure investment, reinforced expectations of heavier sovereign issuance.
- France’s debt snowball keeps OAT risk premiums elevated — Rising refinancing costs, weak deficit control and public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion pushed the French-German spread toward recent highs and above Italy’s corresponding premium.
- UK gilts confront monetary and fiscal pressure simultaneously — Oil-driven inflation fears brought forward expectations for a Bank of England hike, while heavy debt servicing, active quantitative tightening and political spending uncertainty sustained elevated yields.
Asian Markets
Corporate and Business News
- TSMC raises the stakes in the global AI-capacity race — record quarterly profit surged 77%, capital spending guidance climbed to $60–64 billion and another $100 billion was committed to U.S. expansion.
- SK Hynix’s blockbuster Nasdaq listing amplifies Korea’s chip volatility — the $26.5 billion offering opened 14% higher, before profit-taking drove Seoul shares down more than 15% and triggered a KOSPI trading halt.
- China Resources New Energy reignites mainland IPO enthusiasm — Asia’s largest listing raised $3.6 billion and closed 137% above its offer price, sharply outperforming a falling CSI 300.
- India’s primary market rebounds on exceptional demand for SBI Funds — the $1.03 billion offering attracted $31 billion of bids, with the institutional allocation approximately 140 times subscribed.
- South32 accelerates its strategic shift from aluminium to copper — the $5.6 billion asset sale to Alcoa and planned $500 million special dividend sent the Australian miner’s shares up as much as 10%.
- Seven & i’s European expansion strategy wins investor approval — talks to acquire a multibillion-dollar stake in convenience-store operator Żabka lifted the 7-Eleven owner’s Tokyo shares by nearly 4%.
Debt and Monetary Policy News
- Japan’s fiscal-credibility shock drives JGB yields to multi-decade highs — The 10-year yield touched 2.90%, while the 10s–2s spread widened to its broadest in more than two decades.
- Bank of Korea ends a 3½-year pause with a hawkish rate increase — A 25-basis-point hike lifted the policy rate to 2.75%, with persistent inflation and won weakness keeping further tightening in play.
- PBOC reinforces China’s accommodative bias as domestic demand falters — Policymakers pledged ample liquidity, targeted support and closer fiscal coordination while continuing to prioritise policy transmission over headline rate cuts.
- Indonesia secures a sovereign-rating reprieve amid fiscal scrutiny — S&P retained its BBB/A-2 rating and stable outlook, offering relief after Moody’s and Fitch adopted more cautious assessments.
- SP Group clears a high-yield refinancing hurdle in India’s dollar market — The conglomerate’s debut $650 million three-year bond priced at 14.5%, attracting major global institutions despite elevated refinancing risk.
Latin American Markets
Corporate and Business News
- Brazil’s biofuels sector confronts competing catalysts — a higher ethanol mandate promises roughly one billion litres of additional annual demand, while new U.S. tariffs threaten sugar and ethanol exports.
- Raízen’s restructuring develops into a control contest — IG4 is seeking creditor support for potential majority ownership as the Brazilian sugar-and-ethanol group advances a $12.7 billion debt workout.
- Engie Brasil completes a landmark $1.65 billion follow-on offering — the capital raise supports consolidation of the Jirau hydropower stake and ranks among the region’s largest recent equity transactions.
- Argentina’s power sector reopens the international IPO pipeline — YPF Electric Energy filed for a New York listing after quarterly revenue climbed 45.8%, following peer Genneia into the U.S. market.
- Chile’s copper-growth outlook loses momentum — Codelco expects broadly flat production, while BHP warned that declining grades at Escondida could contribute to a 15.5% drop in next-year copper output.
- Mexico’s airport expansion thesis withstands a softer traffic outlook — Vinci-backed OMA outlined another $456 million investment in Monterrey despite higher fuel costs and moderating passenger-growth expectations.
Debt and Monetary Policy News
- Brazil signals a stop-start easing path — Copom’s upside inflation-risk warning prompted economists to price a near-term pause, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end Selic forecast to 14.00% from 13.25%.
- Colombia reasserts inflation control with a divided rate increase — the central bank raised its policy rate by 75 basis points to 12%, extending one of Latin America’s most restrictive monetary settings.
- Banxico signals an extended pause at 6.50% — policymakers unanimously held borrowing costs steady as headline inflation fell to 3.37%, although persistent core pressures preserved a cautious policy bias.
- Argentina’s debt rally gains credibility despite a looming maturity wall — country risk compressed to around 420 basis points as authorities outlined plans to fund obligations through multilaterals, privatizations and domestic issuance.
- Venezuela confronts a historic sovereign restructuring challenge — total obligations may reach $240 billion, including approximately $102 billion in bondholder claims after accrued interest, heightening recovery-value and transparency uncertainty.
Commodities Spotlight
Crude Oil Futures Rose on Re-Escalated US-Iran Conflict, While Inventory Draw Strike Continues
Source: Fundamental Analytics
NYMEX WTI front-month futures initially slid from about $73 to below $70 as U.S.–Iran talks and increased Hormuz tanker flows reduced the geopolitical premium. Prices then reversed sharply, reaching nearly $81 and gaining about 10% overall as renewed hostilities, shipping attacks and Red Sea threats revived disruption fears. U.S. commercial crude stocks fell to 409.7 million barrels, around 6% below five-year norms, as exports strengthened and refineries ran above 96%. Near-record production around 13.9 million bpd and China’s import slump toward 8 million bpd restrained the advance.
Corn in YTD Terms Remains Unchanged, as Volatility Persists
Source: Fundamental Analytics
Front-month CBOT corn edged from roughly $4.37 to near $4.40 per bushel after a volatile round trip, briefly reaching a seven-week high around $4.52. Prices strengthened after USDA cut projected ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion and raised exports, while pollination heat threatened yields. Gains were restrained by 95.3 million planted acres, a near-16-billion-bushel crop outlook and improving Midwest weather. A late pullback followed weak old-crop export sales of 315,000 tonnes. Renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities supported energy and ethanol-linked demand expectations but kept fertilizer costs elevated, preserving a geopolitical risk premium.
