Earnings, Valuations, and Equity Markets
Looking back to 2019, we don’t think that it would be a stretch to claim that lower rates and the dovish approach by the Fed lifted up valuations and played a very significant role in the spectacular rise in equities (not that debt markets did not also perform well)....
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities continued their record run this week. The Dow Jones crossed 29,000 for the first time ever on Friday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose two basis points to 1.84% while the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate...
The Rising Turmoil in the Middle East and the Implications for Portfolio Hedging
There is no doubt that the death of Qassem Soleimani may become a stepping-stone for rising violence, turmoil, volatility, risks, and even a new war in a troubled region of the world. The uncertainty that it generates is exacerbated by the possibility that Russia or...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities changed little this week after gains made earlier in the week were given up after a US airstrike killed the top Iranian general in Baghdad, Iraq. The note on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 1.82 percent while the price of a...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: North America The United States (US) House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump for his...
On the Dialectic Morals of Statecraft: A Conversation with Johannes Bredenburg, Spinoza, Corrie Ten Boom, Amartya Sen, and Sir John Templeton.
In the boarding area I could clearly see three distinct figures: Johannes Bredenburg, Sir John Templeton, and Spinoza. I knew that I was destined for another treat in this end-of-year flight and I was hoping that more distinguished guests would join the journey. We...
Assessing the 2020 Outlook: Part II
In last week’s commentary, we outlined our overall assessment of a decent start for 2020, but expressed our skepticism for the rest of the year (see Assessing the 2020 Outlook: Part I ). The upbeat perspective of most of the analysts for 2020 is based on loose...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities reached record highs this week, driven in part by declining trade and geopolitical uncertainty. All three major US indices, as well as the STOXX 600 and MSCI, reached new milestones. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 9...
Assessing the 2020 Outlook: Part I
We started assessing the outlook for 2020 a few weeks ago. The truth of the matter is that we are facing two almost equally probable scenarios: The first one (adopted by the great majority of analysts) says that growth will continue next year and that the equity...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action By the end of the week, US equity markets were trading slightly below all-time highs set earlier in the day on Friday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note and Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index,...
