Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geoeconomics and Geopolitics
North America Surprisingly, global equity markets have continued their rebound, making up the ground lost in March. Many economists and investors attribute the soaring numbers to the trillions of dollars of government stimulus that has been pumped into the markets....
Market Developments and Wildcards
There is little doubt that stock market indicators (besides the rally itself until recently) pointed to a recovery that is better than the one expected by the majority of analysts, economists, and market watchers. The equity markets recovered most of the losses that...
Covid-19 and the Day After
A $10 Trillion Fed Balance Sheet Is Coming Bill Dudley, BloombergRead the full article here The Fed’s balance sheet has grown by about $3 trillion since mid-March, with more easing on the way. As the Fed buys corporate bonds, municipal securities, Treasuries, and...
Kleptocratic Authoritarianism and the Chinese Dragon
“President Putin is the leader of a great country who is influential around the world. He is my best, most intimate friend”, Xi Jinping, 2018 Hello darkness, I am still looking for useful idiots. The petrostate is at my disposal, so feudalism has been redefined. I no...
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global equities back on the riseAfter last week’s dip, global equities rose this week amid signs the global economy is recovering. Markets seem to be assuming that the worst is behind us. The yield on the US Treasury dropped 2 basis points by Friday...
Covid-19 and the Day After
OECD warns of deepest economic scars in peacetime for a century Chris Giles, Financial TimesRead the full article here While the equity markets seem to have taken for granted the likelihood of a “V-shaped recovery,” a gloomy forecast from the OECD indicates many...
Reinvestment Runaways
We’ve demonstrated that companies that generate high ROIC are time and again the most valuable businesses and stocks to own. In addition, the persistent presence of excess returns points to a moat, a unique business model, inimitable set of characteristics or assets,...
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global equities falterGlobal equities took a tumble this week after markets dropped close to 6% on Thursday amid concerns over an increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations, excessive market speculation, and a pessimistic economic outlook from Federal...
Covid-19 and the Day After
Shipping Industry Warns of Trade Logjam as Crews Remain Stranded Peggy Hollinger, Robert Wright, and Michael Pooler; Financial TimesRead the full article here Nearly 400,000 crew are stranded at sea or at home by Covid-19 travel restrictions. The international...
The Revenge of the Numbers, The Illusion of Theories, and the Delusion of Expectations
Let’s us make no mistake: we are thrilled when the news pleasantly surprises us, contrary to expectations. Rather than the increase in the unemployment rate, more jobs were created in the month of May than the jobs that were lost, (more than 60% of the various...
