Stochastic Paths and Market Abnormalities: Rootlessness and the Contingencies of Cycles of Tragedies
In 1942, Quincy Wright published a two-volume work where, while drawing from distinct disciplines such as anthropology, history, psychology, and mathematics, he tried developing a precise formula that would enable policymakers to calculate the probability of war. It’s...
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global equities riseGlobal equities rose this week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note increased 3 basis points to 1.20% while oil prices continued to rise. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased nearly 5%,...
Covid-19 and the Day After
Here is our take on the articles summarized below: As recovery efforts around the globe begin to gain traction, policymakers and economists are looking for what the future holds. In our first reviewed article, we examine how the dangers of the coronavirus...
Portfolio Construction in an Era of Transformation: When Tragedians & Mozart Met the Inescapable Smash of Ineluctable Forces, Part II
In our commentary two weeks ago, we described how the confidence and sectoral momenta interact and create the four quadrants of market expectations. In that same commentary we also presented eight forces (consumer confidence, monetary conditions, fiscal conditions,...
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global equities rallyGlobal equities rallied this week after dropping more than 3% last week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.17% while oil prices soared. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped more...
Geopolitical Challenges and Statecraft
The articles we have summarized this week explore the ties between the US and China and Russia, which are arguably the most complicated and tense relationships newly elected President Joe Biden will have to address during his time in office. US-China and...
It’s the Capital Allocation, Stupid
A student asked me for investing book recommendations a couple of weeks ago. There were several that I mentioned but the one I heavily emphasized is a book called The Outsiders by William Thorndike. It’s by no means a hidden gem (Buffett listed it as his #1 book in...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead:Â North America Newly elected US President Joe Biden has already made big moves in his first weeks in office....
Covid-19 and the Day After
Here is our take on the articles summarized below: Central banks around the world have pumped trillions of dollars of liquidity into markets in order to ensure some kind of stability in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. This "liquidity bazooka" as the Bloomberg...
Portfolio Construction in an Era of Transformation: When Sophocles Met the Inescapable Smash of Ineluctable Forces, Part I
Whether we look north or south, east or west, we discover powerful forces that crown this era of metamorphosis and change. With this and the forthcoming commentary on Feb. 9, we would like to share with you our views of the most important forces which, in our opinion,...
