Η ΑΥΓΗ ΤΗΣ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΟΟΙΚΟΝΙΚΗΣ ΘΕΡΜΟΔΥΝΑΜΙΚΗΣ
Η παγκόσμια αγορά μετοχών ίσως οδεύει προς ένα σοκ. Με κάποιους ιστορικούς δείκτες όπως το P /E και τα προσδοκώμενα κέρδη, οι αγορές (τουλάχιστον σε ορισμένους τομείς) ίσως είναι υπερτιμημένες, και γι’ αυτόν τον λόγο οι διεθνείς εξελίξεις και η Ιαπωνική καταστροφή...
A Drama in Three Acts: From Credit Extension to the Tragedy of the Commons and the Trajectory of Paper Money
We live in peculiar, maybe schizophrenic days. The drama that started unfolding in August 2007 pertained to Act I - known as the bursting of credit bubbles - that carry with them significant negative effects for equity and debt markets and in their own way they in...
ΔΙΕΘΝΕΙΣ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΕΣ ΑΝΙΣΟΡΡΟΠΙΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΝΟΜΙΣΜΑΤΑ
Το τραγούδι του Bob Dylan "Οι καιροί ..σηματοδοτούν μια αλλαγή- οι καιροί αλλάζουν ", ταιριάζει πολύ καλά στην παγκόσμια εικόνα του σήμερα. Το τοπίο αλλάζει πράγματι. Από που πρέπει να αρχίσουμε; Από τον Αραβικό κόσμο; Από τις δημοσιονομικές ανισορροπίες στην ΕΕ,...
On Burning Developments and Economic Prospects: Centrifugal Forces and Countercyclical Strategies
At the time of this drafting the news centers on different fronts: Prime Minister Socrates in Portugal announced his resignation over a lost confidence vote in the parliament that was about the fourth austerity package of measures within a year! Portugal soon may be...
Market Developments in the Wake of the Japanese Catastrophe: Are we Facing a Rising Global Financial Entropy ?
The global equities market and its bullishness has experienced a shock. By some historical standards such as the P/E ratio and the forward-looking earnings multiple, the markets (at least some sectors) are overvalued, and thus the Japanese catastrophe becomes an...
On Hotspots, Part IV: The Geopolitics of Pakistan
Since our last post covering global hot spots, the protest movements throughout the Middle East have only continued and picked up in intensity. Oman, Saudi Arabia (BTW for how long will it be known as Saudi Arabia and not just Arabia?), Iran (theocracy is dead, and...
A Treacherous Rebalancing Act: A Currency View
Bob Dylan’s song “The times they ‘re a changing”, fits pretty well in today’s global picture. The landscape is changing indeed. Where should we start? In the Arab world? In the fiscal imbalances in the EU but also in the US? In the credit mechanism and its collateral...
Birth Pains: Petrostates, Oil Prices, and the Emerging Middle East Landscape
Over the weekend the headline news was about the continuing turmoil in Arab countries. The reports state that over 200 people are dead in Libya, after the “firing on civilians” took place. The autocratic regime of Gaddafi may be cracking after more than 40 years in...
On Hotspots Part III: Turkey and its Role in the Changing Middle East Landscape
Turkey has become a critical pole in the future hierarchy of global political and economic influence. The recent turmoil in the Middle East seems to be a prime opportunity for the role it wishes to play in the global politico-economic landscape. Over the past few...
On Exchange & Interest Rates: Liquidity Concerns in the Midst of Unrest and the Construction of the New Silk Road
On August 9th of last year, we published on this website a commentary on what amounted to be a prelude to our September newsletter, regarding the Chinese bubble. A few months later and in the beginning of the new Chinese Year, we observe some troubling developments in...
