Growth Forecasts and Policy Uncertainty: Implications for Portfolio Adjustments
A few days ago the IMF published its annual forecasts for developed and emerging economies. Five things are worth pointing out: First, when we review forecasts made for previous years it becomes obvious that the IMF is overestimating growth potential. Second,...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Movement regarding the U.S. budget and tax reform helped propel the S&P 500 to an unusual 8 consecutive days of new high closings. On Friday, when the U.S. Department of Labor reported a loss of 33,000 jobs in September (blamed on Hurricanes Harvey...
Market Valuations and Devolution: Mythos, Madness, or an Allegory?
Over the course of the last few days, some important pieces were published on the valuation of equities and bonds. At the same time we observed independent referendums taking place in Spain and in Kurdistan. The latter could possibly be signs of a devolutionary...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
September 2017 There are no imminent signs that the global economic recovery is about to end. It is in fact accelerating: global growth should amount to 3.5% this year and 3.7% in 2018 (according to the OECD) – the fastest pace since 2011. The UK is the only...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Spanish authorities have confiscated millions of voting papers in Catalonia and stationed additional police in the region ahead of Sunday's independence referendum, with the vote declared illegal by Madrid and Spain's constitutional court. Catalonia...
Market Implications of Forthcoming Central Banks’ Changing Policies: Liquidity & Recessionary Considerations
According to the Fed’s recent announcement, the US central bank will start shrinking its balance sheet shortly, while we are expecting it to raise short-term rates in December. At the same time, we are also expecting the central bank of England to also raise rates in...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Major stock indexes rose to records earlier this week, then decreased—closing mostly flat or slightly down for the week—while treasury yields increased, as global tension came back into the forefront with North Korea’s announcement that the country may...
Why Have We Been Switching the Headlines? War Games and the US Dollar
Throughout the ages, war has been the engine of finance. The collusion between Russia and China in the last few weeks and months in order to bypass the US dollar in the international monetary system is equal to - if not more important than - the North Korea...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action U.S. stocks rose to weekly gains in a stretch that included four straight records for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The S&P 500, Dow industrials and Nasdaq Composite also reached fresh closing highs together on Tuesday and Wednesday. Asian stocks...
Chinese Slowdown: Potential Ramifications for Asset Allocation
The latest data from Chinese economic activity came in below expectations and point to a possible further slowdown for the next year. Specifically, infrastructure spending dropped and this weighed down industrial production. As fiscal policy becomes less supportive...
