Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
August 2017 Multiple engines of growth continue to propel the global economy in a synchronized fashion: all 45 countries tracked by the OECD are currently growing, with 33 accelerating from last year. However, anxiety is palpable. In contrast to just a few...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action All three major US stock market indices posted weekly advances, and a strong showing for tech and biotech stocks helped the Nasdaq show its best weekly performance so far this year. Asian markets headed into the weekend on a cautious note, bringing an...
Jackson Hole and the 10th Anniversary from the Financial Crisis: QExit and Prospects
The central bankers’ conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming ended last week, and with it several questions arose as we reached the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis started showing its ugly face. During that period a number of assets classes have more than...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action US stocks recorded gains for the week, mostly due to a solid rally on Tuesday. Trading volumes were light, however, as investors showed caution in anticipation of guidance from central bankers attending the annual Jackson Hole symposium hosted by the...
The Ataraxia (Tranquility) of the Market and Its Breath: Stoic, Epicurean, or Sceptic?
It has been well-recorded that the equity market’s volatility is pretty low by historical standards as the following 10-year graph shows. This kind of ataraxia (tranquility) may be the equivalent of the period when the Platonic and Aristotelian Schools of Thought were...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The major stock markets finished Friday on a negative note, adding to their losses for the second consecutive week of broad market declines attributed to geopolitical concerns (North Korea last week) and tremors within the White House (this past week)....
Corporate Earnings, Equities Trajectory, and Risks: Considering the Purchase of Cheap Insurance
Over the course of the past several months we have reiterated the point that good growth earnings provide market justification for further rises in the equities market. We continue supporting that thesis and we still hold the view that future earnings for the next...
Commodities, Volatility, and Cryptocurrencies: Some Initial Thoughts
Commodity prices usually follow long cycles. As the graph below shows, commodities enjoyed a good run from the early 1990s to the dawn of the financial crisis and recovered pretty quickly from the crisis, then experienced a downward trajectory for about five years...
Weekly Market Update
 Market Action The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at a fresh record, buoyed by a jobs report that showed employers continued hiring at a healthy rate in July. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that U.S. employers added a...
Market Signals, the Economic Cycle, and Enthymemes: Which Sectors Could Benefit?
We have written before that the financial stress index produced by the St. Louis Fed is a very reliable indicator regarding potential dark clouds in the economic and financial horizons. As can be seen in the graph below (updated as of the end of July), the index -...
