The Spider of Currencies and Trade: Monolithic Tribalism
Over the course of the next few months, problems in emerging markets may intensify. Here is a list of the primary candidates: Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, and China. We certainly do not have the space to discuss all of them in this commentary, but at least we can touch...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 indices all hit new record highs this week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up 2 basis points to 2.84% while the price of a barrel of WTI crude rose 1.57% to $69.80 a barrel. Emerging markets...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month: Â North America The US and Mexico have reached an agreement to revise key portions of the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The new agreement will be renamed the United...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action On Wednesday, the US stock market set a record for the longest-ever bull market (9 years, 5 months, 13 days) in spite of fresh political developments signaling new uncertainty over US President Trump's leadership. The latest leg of the S&P bull run...
Equities and Earnings Trajectory: What Have We Learned From the Q2 Reports?
With very little doubt the good earnings growth has uplifted and sustained stocks to high levels. At the same time, good economic growth has uplifted consumer and business confidence levels and has advanced spending. The main question at this point is that if such...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action It was a good week for US stocks as the Dow and the S&P 500 saw major gains on Thursday. US government debt yields fell this week amidst fears surrounding emerging markets. European markets edged slightly lower on the week, with Asian markets closing...
Dollar Shortage, Contagion Fears, and Currencies’ Tremors
Over the course of the last few days, emerging markets currencies have been experiencing tremors due to contagion fears originating in the Turkish lira. As the first graph below shows, emerging market dollar-denominated debt has more than doubled in the last ten...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities edged lower on the week, weighed down by contagion fears emanating from an intensifying Turkish currency crisis. The yield on the US 10-year note fell in reaction to the situation, slipping to 2.87% from 2.97% a week ago. The price of a...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The major US stock market benchmarks closed slightly positive for the week, while ex-US equities declined modestly on the week. The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed for the week, ending at 2.95% after having stalled near 3%...
Historical Incidents and Fallacies: Market Assessment Within the Underlying Currents
Warning: This is not a commentary about warnings. Forecast: Why should anyone desire to be proven wrong? Market Indexes: Distorted and inadequate to capture market movements let alone the undercurrent fundamentals. In the not too distant past, when we look at the...
