Historical Anachronisms and Fallacies: The Vengeance of Complacency
First of all, allow us to start with some clarifications/definitions: Heraclitus Fallacy: The belief that history imposes no constraints. Failing to comprehend the past not only signifies ignorance, but is also idiotic. Parmenides Fallacy: Comparing the present with...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Thanks to a better than expected October for US earnings and a strong employment report, global equities rose this week. Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell 10 basis points to 1.71% and a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell a dollar...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: North America On October 6th, US President Donald Trump withdrew troops from Syria despite a Turkish...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action This week saw only marginal global equity gains as there were mixed third-quarter earnings results and rather dull Brexit news. As measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), Volatility was down by 7% compared to last week. On...
Shifting Risks and Unintended Consequences for Portfolios: We Live in a Zero-Sum World
We are now under the auspices of a zero-sum game world due to negligible productivity growth rate. Such a shift can be seen as a symptom of trade wars. We believe that the underlying cause can be found in financial manipulations engineered more than twenty years ago....
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equity markets boosted slightly after a strong start to the third-quarter earnings season which has been offset somewhat by slow developments in global trade talks and Brexit dealings. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX)...
Deteriorating Economic Sentiment: Down the Path of Guicciardini’s Maxims
Yesterday the IMF downgraded its projections for economic growth. In its announcement it warned that such action is the result of self-inflicted wounds created by a “precarious” trade war. At a time when central banks are trying to be inventive again via monetary...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equity markets were buoyed late in the week by hopes for a truce in the US–China trade war and optimism that a Brexit deal might be reached by the end of the month. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 19 basis points higher than a week...
False Positive Signals Meet Immanuel Kant: Recessionary Indications & Portfolio Considerations
Composite models that assess the risk of a recession in the next 12 months indicate that the probability of a recession happening in the next 12 months has fallen slightly. However, such reading in our humble opinion is mistaken due to a false positive signal related...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities declined this past week amid signs of slowing US growth. The outlook for slower growth also pushed down the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note 14 basis points to 1.54%. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell...
