Counterparty Risks and the Gathering Storm: Inadequate Solutions and Absurd Voices
In a recent commentary we pointed out that one of the largest clearing houses asked for a $50 billion capital contribution from member institutions, (see https://blacksummitfg.com/3375 ). We have also been pointing out that collateral deficits undermine the stability...Rendezvous with the Future: Looking Forward Through the Lenses of the Past Quarter Century
In this commentary, and in future postings, neither do we intend to outline all possible scenarios regarding the unfolding of geopolitical and geoeconomic events, nor do we suggest that the anchoring of portfolios is the only thing that investors should do. Rather, we...Systemic Risks and Collateral Velocity, Part II: Credit Bottlenecks and Market Tremors
In our commentary dated February 10th (http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/3375) we outlined the significance of collateral velocity and the inherent dangers of another crisis given that the main culprit (derivatives) of the 2008 crisis has not been addressed yet. The...The Flattening of the Yield Curve and the Migration of Risks: The Path of Hedging Holdings and a Contrarian View on Market Trajectory
Historically, the inversion of the yield curve is a good predictor of recessions. On top of this when spreads of high yield bonds reach the current level of 850 bps (i.e. 8.5% above Treasuries) the probability to experience a recession within 8-12 months is between...Sign Up for Our Publications
