Stochastic Paths and Market Abnormalities: Rootlessness and the Contingencies of Cycles of Tragedies
In 1942, Quincy Wright published a two-volume work where, while drawing from distinct disciplines such as anthropology, history, psychology, and mathematics, he tried developing a precise formula that would enable policymakers to calculate the probability of war. It’s...Portfolio Construction in an Era of Transformation: When Tragedians & Mozart Met the Inescapable Smash of Ineluctable Forces, Part II
In our commentary two weeks ago, we described how the confidence and sectoral momenta interact and create the four quadrants of market expectations. In that same commentary we also presented eight forces (consumer confidence, monetary conditions, fiscal conditions,...Portfolio Construction in an Era of Transformation: When Sophocles Met the Inescapable Smash of Ineluctable Forces, Part I
Whether we look north or south, east or west, we discover powerful forces that crown this era of metamorphosis and change. With this and the forthcoming commentary on Feb. 9, we would like to share with you our views of the most important forces which, in our opinion,...Productivity Trajectory and the Chinese Question: Portfolios and the Impact of the Incoming Administration’s Stimuli Packages
Last Thursday (January 14th), the team of the President-Elect proposed a new stimulus package close to $2 trillion. Within a few minutes, the markets reversed gains and ended the day down. The bond markets also sold off and the yields – while they were dropping in the...Sign Up for Our Publications
