Global Market News
Global Equities Gain
Global equities made significant gains this week as hopes for an end to the conflict with Iran rose (though shaky). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased 3.56% and 4.68%, respectively, while the Dow Jones gained 3.04%. The US 10-year Treasury note dipped slightly to close the week at 4.31%. Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped sharply, closing Friday at $95.63. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, decreased more than 20% over the week, closing at 19.23.
Energy Costs Push Inflation Higher
U.S. inflation soared in March, with headline CPI rising 0.9% on the month and 3.3% from a year earlier—the hottest annual reading in two years—driven largely by a surge in gasoline and broader energy costs following disruptions tied to the Iran war. Core inflation remained more subdued at 0.2% month‑over‑month and 2.6% year‑over‑year, slightly below expectations. The spike in fuel prices, including an 18.9% jump in gasoline and a 44.2% rise in fuel oil, fed through to transportation services and contributed to weaker real wages and gloomier consumer sentiment. While New York Fed President John Williams said he expects only a modest, temporary boost to core inflation and still anticipates underlying pressures easing later this year, economists noted that the oil shock could continue to filter into food and goods prices in the months ahead, leaving the Federal Reserve navigating a difficult balance between cooling inflation and supporting a softening labor market.
International Developments
Iran War Enters Fragile Ceasefire Ahead of Talks This Weekend
Ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran are entering a highly uncertain phase as Tehran escalated its demands ahead of planned talks in Islamabad this weekend, where a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance has begun closely watched discussions that are expected to unfold both directly and through intermediaries. Ahead of talks, Iran has been insisting on the unfreezing of sanctioned assets, a halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and implicit recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz before any broader agreement can proceed. While U.S. officials signal cautious optimism, President Donald Trump has paired diplomacy with threats of renewed military action, underscoring the fragile balance between negotiation and escalation. On the ground, the truce remains tenuous as Israel continued operations against Hezbollah, including a major wave of airstrikes on Beirut and other parts of Lebanon immediately after the ceasefire announcement was made, with both sides continuing to exchange fire and Lebanese casualties mounting. Lebanese and Israeli diplomats plan to meet in Washington next week to discuss a potential ceasefire. A key condition of the ceasefire was the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, yet traffic has remained far below normal—only about a dozen ships passed through in the first two days, compared with an average of 129 per day before the war—and Iran briefly signaled it would suspend crossings after Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Even with a slight uptick, the waterway is still moving only a trickle of its usual volume, constraining global oil flows and adding to inflation pressures. At the same time, deeper structural issues remain unresolved, including Iran’s missile capabilities and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which the U.S. seeks to dismantle but Tehran insists is non-negotiable.
Hungary’s Election: Orbán Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Hungary’s upcoming election is shaping into a pivotal test of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s long standing “illiberal democracy” model, as he faces his most serious challenge in over a decade from opposition figure Péter Magyar amid voter frustration over corruption and economic stagnation. After 16 years in power, Orbán has reshaped Hungary’s political system, media, and institutions in ways critics say favor the ruling party, while maintaining close ties with Vladimir Putin and resisting deeper alignment with the European Union. His international backing was reinforced this week as Donald Trump issued a full endorsement of Orbán’s reelection and urged Hungarian voters to support him, alongside a visit from Vice President JD Vance, highlighting Orbán’s growing alignment with segments of the American right. Reports that Orbán privately offered assistance to Putin, including hosting potential Ukraine peace talks in Budapest, further underscore Hungary’s increasingly independent and Russia friendly posture within NATO and the EU. The election’s outcome is expected to carry broader implications beyond Hungary, serving as a bellwether for nationalist political movements in Europe and the durability of democratic norms within Western alliances.
Xi Jin Ping Meets with Taiwan’s Opposition Leader
China is intensifying political and strategic pressure on Taiwan through renewed outreach to opposition figures, as Xi Jinping held a rare high-level meeting with Cheng Li-wun, signaling Beijing’s effort to shape the island’s internal politics and promote closer cross strait ties. The meeting, the first of its kind in a decade, highlighted China’s preference for engaging Taiwan’s Nationalist Party while sidelining the ruling government of Lai Ching-te, which favors greater independence and stronger ties with the United States. Cheng echoed calls for reconciliation and emphasized shared cultural identity, aligning with Beijing’s broader strategy to frame unification as a path to stability and economic benefit amid global uncertainty. The outreach also comes ahead of a planned summit between Xi and Donald Trump, suggesting China may seek to position itself as a stabilizing force while pressuring Washington to scale back support for Taiwan. However, Beijing’s continued military activity around the island and strong public identification among Taiwanese as distinct from China complicate these efforts, underscoring the persistent tension between diplomatic engagement and coercive pressure in cross strait relations.
US Social & Political Developments
Trump Voices NATO Frustrations at White House Meeting
Tensions within NATO have sharply escalated following a contentious White House meeting between Donald Trump and Mark Rutte, highlighting growing transatlantic divisions over the Iran war and the alliance’s role in global security. Trump openly criticized European allies for refusing to participate in U.S.-Israeli military operations or take immediate action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling NATO “tested” and a failure, and raising the prospect of reprisals while again floating grievances such as control of Greenland. European leaders, including Friedrich Merz, have sought to contain the fallout, emphasizing willingness to support maritime security efforts only after a ceasefire is secured, while France and other allies explore limited defensive options. Despite reassurances from Rutte that allies have provided logistical and basing support, the dispute underscores a broader strategic rift, with the Iran conflict emerging as a major stress test for NATO cohesion and raising renewed concerns about the durability of U.S. commitment to the alliance amid diverging threat perceptions and political priorities.
Artemis II Mission Splashes Down to Earth
NASA’s Artemis program marked a major milestone as four astronauts—including Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—successfully completed the Artemis II mission, the first crewed deep space flight in over 50 years, with a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off California. The 10-day mission carried the crew aboard the Orion spacecraft on a roughly 695,000-mile journey around the far side of the Moon, where they conducted observations, tested critical systems, and demonstrated technologies essential for future lunar landings. Traveling at speeds approaching 24,000 miles per hour during reentry, the capsule relied on advanced heat shielding and parachute systems before recovery by U.S. Navy teams. The mission represents a key step toward returning humans to the Moon and advancing longer term ambitions for sustained lunar exploration and eventual missions deeper into space. Please find NASA’s responses to FAQs about the Artemis program here.
Corporate/Sector News
Bessent and Powell Briefs Banks on Cyber Risks
U.S. financial regulators are raising alarm over the cybersecurity implications of next-generation artificial intelligence, as Anthropic’s new Mythos model demonstrates the ability to autonomously identify and exploit software vulnerabilities at unprecedented scale. In response, Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell convened an urgent meeting with major Wall Street bank CEOs to warn of potential systemic risks to financial infrastructure, signaling that AI-driven cyber threats are now viewed as a financial stability issue. Early testing suggests the model can uncover thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities, dramatically accelerating both defensive patching efforts and offensive hacking capabilities, while experts caution that adversaries are already leveraging similar tools, eroding any perceived advantage for defenders. Anthropic has restricted access to the system and launched “Project Glasswing” to coordinate vulnerability detection and mitigation across industry partners, but analysts warn that most organizations remain unprepared for the speed and scale of AI-enabled attacks, raising the risk of widespread disruption as cyber offense and defense enter a new phase of automation.
Energy Companies Face Production Shortages from Iran War
The Iran war is increasingly disrupting global energy supply and corporate output, with major oil companies reporting significant operational and financial impacts across the Middle East. ExxonMobil said it lost roughly 6 percent of global production in the first quarter due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and direct damage to liquefied natural gas infrastructure in Qatar, where missile strikes hit key facilities expected to take years to repair, while volatility in crude markets also weighed on refining earnings. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies shut down a major Saudi refinery joint venture after damage to processing units, adding to broader cuts across Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates that affect around 15 percent of its output. The disruption extends across the sector, with companies like Shell and Chevron also reporting strikes or shutdowns, reinforcing concerns that the conflict has fundamentally undermined the perception of the Gulf as a stable energy hub. Despite some offsetting gains from higher oil and gas prices, the scale of infrastructure damage, supply interruptions, and prolonged repair timelines point to sustained pressure on global energy markets and heightened volatility for both producers and consumers.
Anthropic Inks Deal with Google; Intel Partners with Musk
The race to secure next-generation AI compute is accelerating across the semiconductor industry, with major strategic partnerships reshaping supply chains and chip design. Elon Musk has teamed up with Intel on the “Terafab” project, a vertically integrated chip manufacturing facility in Texas aimed at producing custom high-performance processors for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, reflecting growing demand for specialized chips to power AI applications ranging from autonomous vehicles to satellite-based computing. At the same time, Broadcom is capitalizing on a shift toward energy efficient AI infrastructure, expanding long term partnerships with Google and Anthropic to develop custom AI processors and scale data center capacity, including multiyear commitments to next generation tensor processing units. As AI workloads drive surging demand for compute while raising power constraints, the industry is moving beyond general-purpose GPUs toward customized silicon and vertically integrated production, signaling a new phase of competition centered on efficiency, scale, and control over critical hardware inputs.
Recommended Reads
Our Celebration of Visionary Changemakers
Saud Arabia, Emerging Economies Gain Momentum in Green Hydrogen
White House Pushed Pakistan to Broker Temporary Iran Ceasefire
The Third Gulf War Will Scar Energy Markets for a Long Time Yet
We are Witnessing the Rise of a New Aristocracy
This Week from BlackSummit
The BlackSummit Team
The BlackSummit Team
Image of the Week
Visual Capitalist
Video of the Week
Prediction Markets Make the World a Casino
Bloomberg
