CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month in the Middle East & North Africa, Latin America, Asia (ex-China/India), and Sub-Saharan Africa, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead:

Middle East & North Africa

In early July 2025, controversy erupted over U.S. claims about strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The US Defense Secretary asserted the attacks “totally obliterated” Iran’s bomb-making capacity, but a leaked Pentagon assessment (reported by CNN) found key centrifuges and enriched uranium stocks largely survived the bombing. Iran condemned the raids as “barbaric” but noted the damage was limited. U.S. President Trump announced a ceasefire on June 23^rd to end the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, bringing an abrupt halt to hostilities.
Iran will resume nuclear talks with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—the E3 nations—in Istanbul on Friday, marking the first formal engagement since last month’s ceasefire following Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The meeting, held at the deputy foreign minister level, comes amid mounting pressure from European powers, who have warned they will trigger the 2015 deal’s “snapback” mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions if Tehran fails to make progress by the end of August. Iran insists its nuclear program remains peaceful and accuses the E3 of failing to uphold their commitments under the original agreement, which unraveled after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018. The talks follow five rounds of stalled negotiations earlier this year and are expected to focus on uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and restoring IAEA oversight.
Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. President Trump met at the White House to discuss plans to resettle Gaza’s Palestinian population. Netanyahu said Gazans could either stay or “seek to realize” a “better future” in other countries, suggesting Arab neighbors would host them while Trump reported broad cooperation from surrounding states. However, the proposal was widely condemned by Palestinians and rights groups as tantamount to ethnic cleansing. Amid these developments, international legal experts and human rights organizations have intensified warnings about war crimes and acts of genocide, citing systematic destruction, forced displacement, and starvation tactics in Gaza. Peace talks between Israel and Hamas in Doha are ongoing, with mediation by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt. A 60-day ceasefire proposal is under discussion, including partial hostage releases and increased humanitarian aid. Hamas has responded positively, but Israeli airstrikes continue, and major disagreements remain, especially over Israel’s demand to dismantle Hamas and Hamas’s opposition to an Israeli military presence in Gaza.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping this month. They sank two merchant vessels in one week, killing crew members and claiming the ships were “Israel-linked”. In response, some ships broadcast messages on their tracking systems (e.g. “All crew Muslim”) to signal they had no Israeli personnel on board. The attacks sharply reduced traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb strait and more than doubled war-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea voyages.
Western powers have begun re-engaging with Syria after years of isolation. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Damascus, announcing the restoration of formal ties, while the U.S. ended its decade-old Syria sanctions program, excluding arms-related restrictions. These moves were welcomed by Syria’s transitional government as steps toward reconstruction. However, recent violent clashes in southern Syria between Druze and Bedouin groups have destabilized the region, resulting in over 190 deaths and tens of thousands displaced. Israel launched airstrikes targeting Syrian government and Bedouin positions, claiming to defend Druze communities. The violence has raised concerns about the inclusivity and stability of Syria’s post-Assad leadership.
Oil markets saw further easing as OPEC+ agreed to boost output. In its July meeting, the oil producer cartel expanded its planned August production increase to about 548,000 barrels per day – the largest single-month rise to date. This accelerated roll-back means most of the 2.2 million bpd of previous cuts have now been reversed. The decision was driven by high demand and pressure from the U.S. to lower fuel prices. Markets expect the added supply to help stabilize or reduce global oil prices in the coming months.
Market Implications: MENA assets are under renewed stress as geopolitical risk deepens, and macro conditions soften. Investor concerns surged following U.S.–Israel talks that revived fears of forced Palestinian displacement, widening regional spreads and Gulf CDS. Red Sea disruptions from Houthi attacks are rerouting maritime traffic and driving up war risk costs, pressuring logistics margins and canal-dependent revenues. At the same time, increased oil production by OPEC+ has pushed prices down, with Brent crude nearing $71 per barrel. This shift is putting financial pressure on oil-producing countries but offers some relief to lower-income nations by reducing their oil import costs. Signs of Western re-engagement with Syria offered a tentative lift to select reconstruction-linked exposures, though sanctions overhang persists.

Latin America & the Caribbean

U.S. President Trump publicly threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, explicitly linking the move to the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro. In a letter to Brazilian President Lula da Silva, Trump said Bolsonaro is the victim of a “witch hunt” in Brazil and used the tariff threat to pressure Brazil’s judiciary. The announcement took Bolsonaro’s circle by surprise and provoked widespread condemnation in Brazil. Economists warned the tariff would hit sectors from agriculture to aviation and could galvanize nationalistic support for Lula. Brazilian officials vowed retaliation if the tariffs were enacted.
On July 12^th, the Trump administration announced a 30% tariff on all Mexican imports, set to take effect August 1st, citing Mexico’s alleged failure to curb fentanyl trafficking and secure the U.S.-Mexico border. In a public letter to President Claudia Sheinbaum, President Trump warned that any retaliatory tariffs would trigger even higher U.S. levies. Sheinbaum responded by emphasizing that the U.S. must also take responsibility—particularly in stopping the flow of weapons south and arresting traffickers on its own soil. Sheinbaum expressed optimism that a bilateral agreement could be reached before the deadline, but firmly ruled out allowing U.S. security forces to operate in Mexico. Meanwhile, she has been strengthening ties with other partners, including Canada and the EU, to hedge against potential economic fallout.
Brazil hosted the 17th BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in early July. Brazilian President Lula da Silva called for stronger South-South cooperation and criticized wealthy nations on climate and trade policy. The summit had lower attendance than planned: Chinese President Xi Jinping skipped the meeting and Russia’s Vladimir Putin attended only virtually due to legal sanctions against him. The final declaration (the “Rio de Janeiro Declaration”) condemned June’s missile strikes on Iran and reiterated concern for Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, signaling unity among the BRICS on recent Middle East conflicts.
Argentine President Javier Milei hosted a Mercosur leaders’ summit in Buenos Aires. The summit’s agenda focused on pending free-trade deals, notably reviving a stalled Mercosur-EU agreement and negotiating with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Milei presided over the final session before handing Mercosur’s rotating presidency to Brazil’s Lula da Silva. Leaders also noted Bolivia’s progression from associate to full member (official in 2024) with President Luis Arce attending, reflecting Mercosur’s expanding membership.
Suriname made history when its parliament elected Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the country’s first female president. The 71-year-old physician and lawmaker, from the National Democratic Party, ran unopposed after an inconclusive May election forced a coalition deal. She will take office mid-July facing a battered economy: Suriname emerged from past administration overspending and IMF austerity cuts, though recent offshore oil discoveries promise future revenue. Geerlings-Simons has vowed to stabilize public finances and boost revenues (e.g. through higher tax collection) as the new government begins its term.
Market Implications: Latin American assets face a choppy outlook this month as shifting trade dynamics and uneven diplomacy weigh on sentiment. Regional equity markets lost some ground over the last month, with the year-to-date return lowering a couple of percentage points since June to 23%, according to the iShares Latin America 40 ETF. The imposition of steep U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods triggered currency and credit weakness across the region, raising fears of broader retaliation and margin pressure. At the same time, momentum behind de-dollarization waned following a muted BRICS summit, curbing investor appetite for local currency debt. The U.S. tariff threat against Mexico is shaking market confidence, risking export losses, currency volatility, and inflation—while prompting Mexico to seek new trade alliances and resist U.S. security demands. A brighter spot emerged from the Mercosur summit, where fresh trade deals and tariff exemptions offered modest support to logistics and agribusiness exposures linked to regional integration.

Asia (ex-China/India)

U.S. President Trump also announced a new trade accord with Vietnam. After speaking with Vietnam’s party leader To Lam, Trump said the U.S. would levy a 20% tariff on many Vietnamese exports (down from a planned 46%), while Vietnam agreed to preferential treatment for U.S. goods like automobiles. Both sides portrayed the deal as a mutually beneficial outcome: the U.S. framed it as pressuring Vietnam to be “fair” in trade, while Hanoi hailed it as strengthening bilateral commerce. The announcement followed months of U.S. complaints that Vietnam was re-exporting U.S. products via third countries, hence the 40% tariff on re-exports built into the accord.
President Trump announced a new trade deal with the Philippines that sets a 19% tariff on Philippine exports to the U.S., while U.S. goods will face zero tariffs entering the Philippines. The agreement, framed as a strategic partnership, includes military cooperation and economic concessions—such as Manila opening its automotive sector and committing to increased purchases of American soy, wheat, and pharmaceuticals. While Philippine President Marcos Jr. hailed the deal as a “significant achievement,” critics note the outcome is lopsided, with Manila securing only a one-point reduction from the previously threatened 20% rate.
A Seoul court approved a new arrest warrant for former president Yoon Suk Yeol as part of a widening probe. The warrant alleges Yoon improperly moved to impose martial law last year to remain in power. This came after a special counsel opened cases into Yoon’s obstruction of justice and abuse of power. Yoon, who had been granted bail in May, was ordered back into custody pending trial and faces insurrection charges that could carry life imprisonment or worse. His detention has drawn criticism from supporters, even as judges say the legal process must proceed.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s defense ministers met in China but broke down without issuing any joint statement. Indian officials said the proposed declaration failed to mention “terrorism”, notably ignoring an April attack in Jammu & Kashmir attributed to Pakistan, which led India to withhold its approval. China’s defense minister expressed regret, but the impasse reflected enduring India-Pakistan rivalry within the SCO despite their nominal shared platform.
Malaysia has introduced new restrictions on the import and export of U.S.-origin AI chips, requiring a 30-day advance notice and a special permit for such transactions. This move is aimed at closing regulatory loopholes and preventing illegal transshipment, especially after reports that Chinese firms were using Malaysia to access restricted chips like those from Nvidia. The regulation falls under Malaysia’s Strategic Trade Act and targets high-performance chips used in AI model training. It reflects growing global scrutiny over AI chip flows amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
Market Implications: Asian markets are navigating a blend of trade reprieve and political risk this month. Vietnam’s softer-than-expected tariff deal with the U.S. buoyed logistics and consumer sentiment despite pressure from a weakening dong. In contrast, governance concerns in South Korea and Thailand triggered foreign outflows and currency softness, as legal and leadership uncertainties weighed on investor confidence. Regionally, stalled security coordination at the SCO defense summit highlighted fragmentation, adding to broader unease around geopolitical cohesion and risk. However, regional equity markets continue to do well, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index gaining over the last month, notching a year-to-date return of more than 17%.

Sub-Saharan Africa

On June 27th, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in Washington aimed at ending a deadly conflict in eastern DRC, where thousands have been killed and hundreds of thousands displaced this year. Signed by the foreign ministers and hosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the deal centers on security and economic cooperation, particularly in mining, with commitments to disarm armed groups. While the accord links Rwandan economic integration in eastern Congo to long-term peace, human rights groups have criticized it for lacking provisions on wartime abuses. Days later, the DRC government and the M23 rebel group signed a Qatar-facilitated ceasefire, pledging to formalize peace by August 18th. The UN peacekeeping mission welcomed it as a vital step toward sustainable peace, noting that this latest agreement builds on the June accord between Rwanda and the DRC.
In Kenya, nationwide antigovernment protests turned deadly in early July. Demonstrations this month (marking the 1990 “Saba Saba” democracy uprising) saw hundreds of mainly young protesters clashing with police. Security forces used tear gas, water cannons and live fire to disperse crowds. The national human rights commission put the death toll at least 31 nationwide with over 100 wounded. The largely spontaneous unrest – fueled by anger over the economy, corruption and police brutality – has been met with a harsh crackdown. Kenya’s president even publicly suggested shooting protestors who vandalize property, drawing further condemnation from rights groups.
U.S. President Trump hosted a delegation of five West African leaders (from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal) at the White House to discuss trade and development. The focus was on U.S. investment opportunities as Trump assured the leaders they would be exempt from his new tariff regime. He lauded Africa’s resources during the meeting. However, some African Union officials criticized the optics: they noted the summit coincided with recent punitive U.S. tariffs on other African nations and cautioned that true partnership requires fair trade policies.
Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shettima and Brazil’s Vice President Geraldo Alckmin signed a roughly $1 billion cooperation agreement covering agriculture, food security, energy and defense. The centerpiece is a plan to invest in mechanized farming across Nigeria – providing equipment, training and service centers – to transition the country away from subsistence agriculture. The deal also includes Brazilian support for Nigerian energy projects (gas and renewables) to attract investment. The signing in Abuja reflects Nigeria’s push to reach a $1 trillion economy by 2030 through reforms in agriculture and energy.
Mali and Russia signed new economic and energy agreements. Malian junta leader Assimi Goita visited Moscow and met President Putin, who said there is an “upward trend” in bilateral ties despite modest trade levels. Among the accords was one on nuclear cooperation: Mali and Russia have long discussed building a small Russian-designed nuclear power plant in Mali, and the two countries agreed to cooperate on “peaceful use of nuclear energy”. They also discussed geological exploration and resource development. This deepening partnership follows Mali’s recent alignment with Russia after expelling former Western security partners.
Uganda’s long-ruling president Yoweri Museveni announced that he will again seek re-election in the January 2026 vote. Museveni, who first seized power in 1986, has changed the constitution twice to remove term and age limits. In his announcement he said he intends to grow Uganda to a “$500 billion” economy in the next five years. Critics accuse him of clinging to power through patronage and security force support. Museveni’s main challenger will be opposition leader Bobi Wine (Robert Kyagulanyi), who already has vowed to run and in 2021 alleged the last election was stolen.
Market Implications: Sub-Saharan markets are navigating a fragmented outlook shaped by geopolitical signals and selective sector momentum. Washington’s outreach to West African nations offered potential development finance for extractives and infrastructure, though political strings may complicate debt access. Mali’s tightening alignment with Moscow spurred sanctions risk and widened spreads across CFA-linked assets. Meanwhile, a U.S.-brokered Rwanda–DRC accord revived investor confidence in cross-border copper and cobalt corridors, lending support to regional mining and transport plays.

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America & the Caribbean

Asia (ex-China/India)

Sub-Saharan Africa

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