False Positive Signals Meet Immanuel Kant: Recessionary Indications & Portfolio Considerations
Composite models that assess the risk of a recession in the next 12 months indicate that the probability of a recession happening in the next 12 months has fallen slightly. However, such reading in our humble opinion is mistaken due to a false positive signal related...The Mispricing of Assets, the Repricing of Expectations, and the Incineration of Reason: Investment Strategy in the Valley of the Missing Link
What do the US and UK political developments as well as the stock market valuation have to do with the Peloponnesian War fought between Athens and Sparta (431-404 BCE)? In all cases, observers want to know the future as unique (possibly extraordinary) developments are...Short-Term Borrowing Crunch: An Aberration or a Signal of Trouble?
In the course of the last couple of days the Fed has been injecting significant amounts of liquidity (to the tune of $75 billion per day) into the financial system. It should be noted that such intervention has not taken place since the days of the financial crisis...A Few Random Thoughts on Economic Structural Integrity: Global Order Meets Finance
The story of humankind has been a long tale of war, tyranny, misery, conflict, and illiberalism. To that extent the recent decades of relative peace and prosperity, along with the rising middle classes and democracy around the world is a historical aberration. From...Contemplating the Ramifications of a Slowdown
Last Friday’s trade war escalation may not be substantial in terms of GDP impact but could indicate a turn in the ongoing trade disputes and may inflict significant damage in business, investment, and consumer confidence. Such particular development in the midst of an...Sign Up for Our Publications
