A Preliminary Assessment of Q4
We are of the opinion that the output gap in the US by the end of the year will range between 2.5-3.5%. However, for the European Union (EU), we expect the output gap to be higher than that. Such an assessment implies elevated unemployment rates for both the U3 and...Market Melt-up and the Fed’s Magic Flute in the Courtyard of Aristophanes
The most recent Fed’s decision to turn policy on its head and pursue higher inflation targets for the sake of stimulating the economy, reminds us of a grand strategy without tactics, which simply is no strategy. The reason for this is the fact that the Fed has no...Invert, Always Invert
“All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.”...Value and Renewal
“My own thinking has changed drastically from 35 years ago when I was taught to favor tangible assets and to shun businesses whose value depended largely upon economic Goodwill. This bias caused me to make many important business mistakes of omission”...Reviewing Economic Developments: Getting Away from Colchis with the Golden Fleece
During the month of July, economic momentum lost ground, as portrayed by the Consumer Sentiment Index shown below. Data related to employment, spending, and mobility also reflected the slow down. Caution is also expressed regarding the next 2-3 months as the flu...Sign Up for Our Publications
