Historical Anachronisms and Fallacies: The Vengeance of Complacency
First of all, allow us to start with some clarifications/definitions: Heraclitus Fallacy: The belief that history imposes no constraints. Failing to comprehend the past not only signifies ignorance, but is also idiotic. Parmenides Fallacy: Comparing the present with...Shifting Risks and Unintended Consequences for Portfolios: We Live in a Zero-Sum World
We are now under the auspices of a zero-sum game world due to negligible productivity growth rate. Such a shift can be seen as a symptom of trade wars. We believe that the underlying cause can be found in financial manipulations engineered more than twenty years ago....Deteriorating Economic Sentiment: Down the Path of Guicciardini’s Maxims
Yesterday the IMF downgraded its projections for economic growth. In its announcement it warned that such action is the result of self-inflicted wounds created by a “precarious” trade war. At a time when central banks are trying to be inventive again via monetary...Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equity markets were buoyed late in the week by hopes for a truce in the US–China trade war and optimism that a Brexit deal might be reached by the end of the month. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 19 basis points higher than a week...False Positive Signals Meet Immanuel Kant: Recessionary Indications & Portfolio Considerations
Composite models that assess the risk of a recession in the next 12 months indicate that the probability of a recession happening in the next 12 months has fallen slightly. However, such reading in our humble opinion is mistaken due to a false positive signal related...Sign Up for Our Publications
