Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equity markets boosted slightly after a strong start to the third-quarter earnings season which has been offset somewhat by slow developments in global trade talks and Brexit dealings. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX)...
Deteriorating Economic Sentiment: Down the Path of Guicciardini’s Maxims
Yesterday the IMF downgraded its projections for economic growth. In its announcement it warned that such action is the result of self-inflicted wounds created by a “precarious” trade war. At a time when central banks are trying to be inventive again via monetary...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equity markets were buoyed late in the week by hopes for a truce in the US–China trade war and optimism that a Brexit deal might be reached by the end of the month. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 19 basis points higher than a week...
False Positive Signals Meet Immanuel Kant: Recessionary Indications & Portfolio Considerations
Composite models that assess the risk of a recession in the next 12 months indicate that the probability of a recession happening in the next 12 months has fallen slightly. However, such reading in our humble opinion is mistaken due to a false positive signal related...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities declined this past week amid signs of slowing US growth. The outlook for slower growth also pushed down the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note 14 basis points to 1.54%. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: North America The US House of Representatives has launched an official impeachment inquiry into...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities were modestly lower on the week, while the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined 9 basis points to 1.69%. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined $3 to $55.65 as most Saudi oil production came back on...
The Mispricing of Assets, the Repricing of Expectations, and the Incineration of Reason: Investment Strategy in the Valley of the Missing Link
What do the US and UK political developments as well as the stock market valuation have to do with the Peloponnesian War fought between Athens and Sparta (431-404 BCE)? In all cases, observers want to know the future as unique (possibly extraordinary) developments are...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities closed higher on the week while the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined 8 basis points to 1.78% and the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose $3.50 after Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure was damaged in...
Short-Term Borrowing Crunch: An Aberration or a Signal of Trouble?
In the course of the last couple of days the Fed has been injecting significant amounts of liquidity (to the tune of $75 billion per day) into the financial system. It should be noted that such intervention has not taken place since the days of the financial crisis...
