Publications
By: Joel Charalambakis | On: September 4, 2016 |
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in July, below expectations, and wage gains were modest. In light of recent chatter by Fed officials on the timing of rate […]
By: Thierry Malleret | On: September 1, 2016 |
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
August 2016 If we had to capture the mood at Jackson Hole (the meeting of central bankers) with just one word, it would be: anxiety. Despite participants putting on a brave face, there […]
By: Joel Charalambakis | On: August 26, 2016 |
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks fell for the second consecutive week although markets remain quiet overall. Treasuries have been in their tightest trading range in years, the VIX sits far below its […]
By: Joel Charalambakis | On: August 21, 2016 |
Weekly Market Update
Market Action U.S. stocks retreated slightly from their all time highs this week. Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting revealed a divided committee while commentary from regional Presidents this week […]
By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 18, 2016 |
Reconciling Market Signals
In last week’s commentary we pointed out that the accumulation of debt by corporations may be behind the market upswing (through shares buyback programs while the fundamentals do not support […]
By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 12, 2016 |
Credit Markets and the Financial Bloodline: The Oxymoron of an Upswing
Corporate debt is at record high. Net equity issuance has been negative for the last few years. The shares buyback pattern is simply staggering. The fact that almost 70% of […]
By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 4, 2016 |
Dancing Around the Banquet of Stagnation: Seeking Market Catalysts
The extraordinary global increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio requires a growth rate of at least 4% in order for the debt to be sustainable. The unfortunate thing is that such […]
By: Thierry Malleret | On: July 29, 2016 |
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
July 2016 The “risky trinity” (in the words of the BIS) of (1) unusually low productivity growth, (2) historically high global debt levels and (3) remarkably narrow room for policy manoeuver explains […]
By: Joel Charalambakis | On: July 24, 2016 |
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Another week of positive performance for U.S. equities comes in the midst of earnings season. So far, corporate profits have come in stronger than analyst expectations but still […]
By: John E. Charalambakis | On: July 20, 2016 |
From the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis to the Turkey’s 2016 Failed Coup: Geopolitics and a Series of Dreams
Somewhere in the middle of the Pacific last weekend over dinner with Bob Zimmerman the lyrics of his song “A Series of Dreams” echoed in my ears. The attempted coup […]
By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 29, 2016 |
Financial Stress, Valuations, and Realignment Risks: Is Uncertainty Looming?
The external debt of developing economies has more than tripled in the last ten years. Brazil of all countries is selling notes to yield-hungry investors that mature in 2047! Where […]