In the Garden of Credit: Signs of Life and the Prospects for 2012
Liquidity has dried up in Europe. Banks in the greater EU are unable to refinance their unsecured bonds that are approaching maturity. Moody’s cut the credit rating of French banks last week, and it is expected that France and other nations’ credit rating will be cut...
The Incubation of a Crisis: Dum Spiro Spero in the Life of Swap Lines and Hybrid Accounting
In the last few days the markets tried to breathe a breath of new life and optimism in the midst of developments in the EU and the initiatives taken by central banks. It has been our position that the EU is suffering from two deadly problems, namely: cancer (public...
The Euro Zone Meets Gilgamesh and the Music Plays on: Rameau’s Hippolytus Act Two
Jean-Philippe Rameau's compositions stand out as the epitome of Rococo style. His opera "Hippolyte Et Aricie" was the first work to which the term "Baroque" was applied. The opera is based on Racine's play Phedre (dated 1677) with elements of the tragedies of...
On Central Banking Dogmas: The Euro in a Rear-View Mirror Perspective
In March 1914, the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) started its operations in the US. Within fifteen years the depression was taking root in the US. Seventy years later, the European Central Bank (ECB) was starting its operations and in a twist of fate, in about ten years...
An Alaric Moment for the Euro Zone: Liquidity Concerns in the Times of the New Visigoths
Almost 1600 years ago the first signs of Rome’s demise appeared in the horizon. Around 411 AD the Visigoths under Alaric’s leadership attacked and ravaged the city. Smoking ruins and destructions was left behind. This was not the first sign that the end of the Western...
The Athens-Rome Express: Next Stop Paris
Since early July we have posted comments about Italy’s shaky position. In late 2009 the ten-year spread of Greek bonds over the German Bunds was approximately 400 bps. Greek ten-year bonds were yielding about 7%, as the graph below shows. Two years later the spread is...
The ECB and the Eurozone Crisis: The Role of a Lender of Last Resort (LLR)
As those lines are being drafted, the ECB announced – under its new leadership – a reduction in its interbank lending rate by 25 bps. The EU and the US markets seemed to like it, in the midst of the Greek political and economic developments. It is widely expected that...
On the EU’s Substitution Effect: Haircuts and Market Realities
We have the feeling that we needed a surgery and we got a counseling session. The “landmark” deal announced in the early morning hours (EU time) yesterday, is full of uncertainties and ambiguities. Moreover, it seems that is another band-aid that seems to kick the can...
The Abyss of a Credit Freeze: EU Imbalances and the Enigma of Market’s Exostosis
An abnormality (exostosis) has been developing in the markets that involves an a priori assumption that the EU will solve its debt and banking problems. On the surface it seems that this exostosis is benign and can be fixed with the expected enhancement of the EU’s...
Does Money Matter? Blowing (Bubbles) in the Wind
The late Milton Friedman used to ask his students at the University of Chicago whether money matters. Of course, the classic answer that he was expecting from them was: “Only money matters!” Whether someone subscribes or not to this strict monetarist view, the...
