Hypnotized by Dreams of Utopian Placebos, Part II: Jackson Hole Meets the Texas Ratio
In the last commentary our thesis was that the economic landscape does not suffer from secular stagnation but rather from a complex and confused disequilibrium that diminishes expectations. Rather than focusing on the causes of this disequilibrium policymakers shift...
Weekly Selections from Monthly Barometer
5 insightful op-eds or articles to help make sense of today’s world Mohamed El-Erian, “Markets Are Making a Sucker's Bet on Europe” (Bloomberg View, August 14, 2013) Or why bad economic data is regarded as good news by the markets... The financial pundit explains the...
Hypnotized by Dreams of Utopian Placebos: Subpar Performance in an Age of Diminished Expectations, Part I
We are dreaming. We desire utopias. We treat ourselves with placebo drugs and we are hypnotized by all of the above. The symptoms started in Japan in the early 1990s. It has been called Japanese malaise and it seems that is spreading. Subpar GDP growth rate, interest...
Weekly Market Update
Stocks saw a positive week despite geopolitical risks that sparked volatility. Back and forth news on Russian aggression, growing US involvement against ISIS in Iraq and an end to a cease fire between Hamas and Israel weren't enough for equities to rise. As earnings...
Weekly Selections from Monthly Barometer
5 insightful op-eds or articles to help make sense of today’s world Mark Gilbert, “Sausages, Cats and the ECB” (Bloomberg View, August 8, 2014) In the words of a former governor of the Bank of England, formulating monetary policy at the ECB is like “herding cats”. In...
The Groom Still Waiting at the Altar: The Medium-Term Brightening of the Economic Outlook
Over the course of the last few weeks equity markets has felt shocks, with the German DAX index dropping by more than 10% signifying correction territory. As we explained last week, a combination of consolidation/maturity issues (talk of mini-correction), geopolitical...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks rallied in the U.S. on Friday to squeeze out small gains for the week after having erased YTD gain last Friday. Elsewhere around the globe however the results for the week remain depressing. European markets have compounded weakness demonstrated...
Weekly Selections from Monthly Barometer
5 insightful op-eds or articles to help make sense of today’s world David Bowers, “Treasury Yields – The Only Way is Up” (Financial Times, July 30, 2014 – paywall) The MD of Absolute Strategy Research addresses one of the most important issues for investors and argues...
Altering Expectations: Not Exactly What it Usually Means
The market turmoil last week persuaded some that a major correction is at work that will deflate the financial bubble. We would humbly disagree with that prediction. In our opinion there are five main reasons why the market blinked last week, namely: Uncertainty about...
Weekly Market Update
The Dow has effectively erased its YTD gains as of this week as concerns over the potential for accelerated Fed action for interest rates, the stabilitiy of the European banking system as illustrated by Espirito Santo, the Israeli/Hamas conflict and the technical bond...
