Spreads and the Business Cycle: Opportunities and Risks
The Fed decided earlier today to postpone the increase in short term rates citing global growth and disinflationary concerns. We believe that such concerns are overstated, at least for developed economies. We are of the opinion that if the Fed had finally started the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action In the week before a long anticipated Fed meeting markets calm relative to their recent actions over the past month. Data was mixed on the week, with Job openings suggesting labor market confidence but consumer sentiment disappointing. The data, combined...
Market Gyrations and Expectations: The Net Debt Perspective
As we noted in our last commentary (http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/3181), we anticipate some volatility during the next few weeks, but we also expect it to subside and for the market to find its upswing trend during the last 10-14 weeks of the year. We are of the...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
The global economic outlook is becoming increasingly deflationary. The dual collapse in commodity prices and EM currencies, combined with and caused by the sharp deceleration in China, exerts strong deflationary headwinds that affect the rest of the world. A situation...
Financial Stress and Expectations: The Story of Developed Markets through the Eyes of Emerging Market Realities
As we reported in our Weekly Market Update over the weekend (http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/BFG-Weekly-Brief-August-29-2015.pdf), the US and the EU equity markets experienced one of their most volatile weeks. Over the course of two-three...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Wall Street saw one of its most dramatic and volatile weeks since the financial crisis. After opening Monday down 1,000 points the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged back to post a gain of over 1% this week led by Energy and Technology. While U.S....
Weekly Market Update
Market Action A devastating week for the markets has left investors searching for answers. More worries about China and the implications for global growth have been blamed, as have concerns about earnings growth for some key American firms. Investors worry that a...
On Deep States and Deep Markets: Medea Meets the Neo-Mamluk State of Global Volatility
In the summer months of 1944 World War II had taken a clear trajectory. The deadliest war period in human history was approaching its end. At that time the US was establishing not just its geopolitical power but also its geoeconomic power through the dominance of the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action All three U.S. averages overcame a turbulent week to post slight gains on the week. Energy stocks led the way despite further declines in the price of crude oil. China’s devaluation sparked volatility across asset classes this week. The People’s Bank of...
Recalibrating Investment Strategies: Adapting in an Ever-Changing Landscape
If we took a five-minute helicopter view of the global economic landscape, what would we have observe? Starting from the country of the rising sun, we could say that Japan has been struggling for 25 years now to find its pace, and still may have a lot of work to do in...
