Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
The macro backdrop for the rest of the year is the following: (1) lower global growth (around 3%) than expected; (2) higher headline inflation prompted by oil base effects, but subdued core inflation; (3) sharp deceleration of growth across emerging markets (EMs); (4)...
Financial Steroids: Greece, China and the Lopsided Approach to Unnatural Policies
Theories are not extracted from history. On the contrary, theories are needed in order to interpret history. Economic phenomena are ordered in accordance to definite laws. Understanding the relationships among economic variables is pivotal in assessing forthcoming...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The major U.S. equity indices posted small losses on the week despite some pockets of strength within the market. The managed care and athletic apparel industries provided strong results this week thanks to a coming consolidation in the former and...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action After a few weeks of disappointing returns the major averages in the U.S. posted solid gains led by the Healthcare and Consumer sectors. European markets continue to be plagued by the lack of progress between Greece and the troika. Janet Yellen offered...
Separating Sense from Nonsense in the Liquidity Debate
The choir of voices sounding the alarm on market liquidity got a new member last week in the Wall Street Journal’s Op-Ed pages: Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, one of the largest financial services firms in the world and known for its leading role in private equity....
Prodigal Families and Comical Tragedies: The Cannibalization of the Price of Capital
Rembrandt’s painting portraying the return of the prodigal son is an amazing and monumental piece of art. It signifies the most joyful moment of reuniting a family and starting a new chapter/direction in everyone’s life. No matter how many times someone has seen the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Despite a turbulent Friday the major averages delivered small gains this week, save for the tech heavy Nasdaq. While yields fell on the week the rising trend and widening spreads with corporate bonds lifted Financials this week. Another week has gone by...
Dancing with Lemmings: The Migration of Crowded Trades
We live in an epoch where volatility is becoming a trademark. We try to discover causes for this and all we are successful in doing is reshuffling symptoms. Like lemmings we follow a herd mentality that resembles a dance of morons. And as we are dancing along the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Both equity and fixed-income assets sold off this week, posting poor results for the second straight week. The drama in Greece and the impact currencies are having on asset markets continue to dominate the news. After the strong jobs report released on...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
On all fronts, global economic growth remains soft: facing headwinds in the US, tepid in the Eurozone, underwhelming in Japan and decelerating across emerging markets (with exceptions, such as India). For reasons expanded below, and barring a productivity miracle...
