Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
The global economy is about to enter its “third dip” (after the subprime and the Eurozone crises). The IMF just revised downwards its 2016 forecast for global growth to 3.4% (from 3.6%) and the World Bank to 2.9% for real GDP growth (down from 3.3%). Most likely these...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Markets finally posted a positive week in the U.S. thanks to a combination of some promising earnings reports and global central banks maintaining easy policies. While stocks posted gains in most markets, bonds rallied as well. Japan surprised markets...
Operation Market Garden: Can it Happen Again? (This time in the financial world)
Following the successful Normandy invasion in June 1944, the Allies executed that September the military operation known as Market Garden (Market referred to the airborne forces that were supposed to seize bridges, and Garden to ground forces). The purpose was to...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Several major global markets netted gains thanks to a rally by the end of the week. Equities followed Mario Draghi’s lead after the ECB President hinted at more stimulus due to falling inflation expectations in the Eurozone. Other stimulus chatter from...
Is a Secular Bear Knocking at Market’s Door? The Escalator of Spending
We are crossing correction territory (a drop of more than 10%) for some equity markets in developed countries around the world. This has brought questions about the possibility of a secular bear market (a drop of more than 20%) that will wipe out stocks. The causes...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The second trading week of the year was again unkind to stocks around the globe. A number of catalysts have been thrown out in the press from China entering a bear market, low energy prices, the Fed’s increase last month among others. A considerable...
Market Sentiment and Residual Confusions: On the Finite Unpredictability of Uncertain Outcomes
Yesterday, the South African Rand lost 10% of its value. The South African economy is viewed as unstable due to its domestic politics (the President changed the Minister of Finance twice within a week) as well as its dependence on exports to China. The reality of a...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action U.S. markets got off to their worst start ever to a new year. The selling was virtually indiscriminate, with every sector and segment of the market down. Further worries about Chinese growth, the renminbi, and how regulators manage falling asset prices...
At the Dawn of 2016: Where the Credit Cycle Meets Geopolitical Tensions and the Earnings Yield
Rising geopolitical tensions during the first couple of days in the New Year may bring a rising risk premium. At the same time, China’s market turmoil (due to slowing manufacturing activity as well as expiring restrictions on share sales) is impacting markets in...
How then Should We Invest? A Conversation with Francis Bacon, Descartes, Heisenberg, Israel Kirzner, Byron, and Francis Schaeffer
I boarded the non-stop flight from Cincinnati to Paris. Walking down the plane’s aisle I discovered a special area can accommodate round-the-table discussions, just as in previous years. To my left I saw Bacon, Descartes, and Heisenberg. On the right side were...
