Shifting Cycles and Portfolio Structures: Hand Me Another Brick to Build a Shelter From the Storm
As previously noted from this page, I believe that we are entering into a period where the forces of market risk, volatility, liquidity, and credit risk encompass a cycle whose velocity may change much more frequently than during any other period in financial history....
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks in the U.S. posted another week of gains and have largely recovered from their period of volatility in August. With the Fed Funds Futures and Bond Markets pricing zero rates into 2016 stocks may have more room to run this year. While markets in...
Financial Distress: Infatuations and Magnificent Illusions
In his 1984 Shareholder Letter, Warren Buffett wrote: “The corpse is supposed to file the death certificate. Under this ‘honor system’ of mortality, the corpse sometimes gives itself the benefit of the doubt”. This is an example of a magnificent delusion unfortunately...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Despite more data that questioned the health of the current macroeconomic environment asset markets had one of their best weeks in months. Energy and Materials, the two weakest sectors so far in 2015, led the rally with each rising over 7%. The first...
The Rolling Pyramid of Historical Financial Crises and the Moral Economic Imperatives: Distinguishing Causes from Symptoms
The Rolling Pyramid of Historical Financial Crises and the Moral Economic Imperatives: Distinguishing Causes from Symptoms We have noted in past commentaries that our global financial system moves from crisis to crisis due to the lack of an anchor. In the previous...
On the Disruption of the Disruptors: The Redrafting of a New Chapter in Global Developments
In the art of war (in the general spirit of geopolitical and geoeconomic diplomacy) the opponent’s greatest strength happens to be his greatest weakness. Let’s take a look at a few examples. When we think of China, we usually think of its outstanding economic growth...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action An upward revision to Q2 GDP growth from 3.7% to 3.9% couldn’t lift markets this past week. The downfall this week hit the Nasdaq especially hard as concerns over drug prices and potential political action impacted the Biotech industry specifically and...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The September meeting of the Federal Reserve came and went without a change in monetary policy. Citing the effects on inflation from global weakness Janet Yellen still reiterated expectations for a rate increase this year. Stocks rallied initially on the...
Spreads and the Business Cycle: Opportunities and Risks
The Fed decided earlier today to postpone the increase in short term rates citing global growth and disinflationary concerns. We believe that such concerns are overstated, at least for developed economies. We are of the opinion that if the Fed had finally started the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action In the week before a long anticipated Fed meeting markets calm relative to their recent actions over the past month. Data was mixed on the week, with Job openings suggesting labor market confidence but consumer sentiment disappointing. The data, combined...
