Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
March 2016 The data, in particular the sharp retrenchment in global capital and trade flows, shows that the world is facing a growing risk of “economic derailment”. In contrast to the recent rally in the financial markets, global growth continues to lose...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks ended their win streak with a slight decline this week and sit relatively flat for 2016 overall. Bond yields rose this week as several statements from Fed officials leaned towards hawkish action as soon as the next meeting of the central bank....
The Plumbing of the Financial System: Debt Markets and Structured Products
Over the course of the last few months official foreign accounts have been selling US Treasuries. At the same time, the US Fed has been selling Treasuries to its primary dealers whose inventory of government bonds is rising. Moreover, newly issued paper (a.k.a....
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. stock market delivered its fifth consecutive week of gains and entered into positive territory for the first time in 2016. Thanks to the Fed’s diminished expectations for rate hikes in 2016 equities took off, welcoming the dovish sentiment. Oil...
Financial Conditions and Helicopter Money: Generational Public Ethos and Norms Greet Mr. Market
We are experiencing a transformational change from post-modernity to meta-modernity. As that transformation takes place public philosophy, customs, policies and norms also change. The metamorphosis which is now at works may soon resemble the one described by Kafka in...
Counterparty Risks and the Gathering Storm: Inadequate Solutions and Absurd Voices
In a recent commentary we pointed out that one of the largest clearing houses asked for a $50 billion capital contribution from member institutions, (see https://blacksummitfg.com/3375 ). We have also been pointing out that collateral deficits undermine the stability...
It’s The “Never Befores,” Stupid
We are delighted to host the presentation that Mr. Lawrence Goodman made last week at the Stronger Global Economic Growth Conference in Shanghai. Mr. Goodman is the president of the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). Mr. Goodman has served as managing director and...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Markets around the globe moved higher in unison this week although the catalysts seem to deviate. U.S. data this week showed promise for the economy while in China and Europe weak reports suggest further easing measures for longer. The most recent U.S....
Rendezvous with the Future: Looking Forward Through the Lenses of the Past Quarter Century
In this commentary, and in future postings, neither do we intend to outline all possible scenarios regarding the unfolding of geopolitical and geoeconomic events, nor do we suggest that the anchoring of portfolios is the only thing that investors should do. Rather, we...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
Today’s world is safer and richer than it has ever been, but this is of little comfort to those whose expectations are repeatedly disappointed. When one starts connecting the economic, geopolitical, societal and environmental dots, reasons to worry are mounting. In...
