Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
September 2016 More and more, decision-makers and market participants are coming to the realization that ultra-low interest rates reflect profound structural issues – most notably global ageing, falling productivity rates and rising inequalities – as much as...
The Markets and the Search for a Refiner’s Fire: Staring in the Mirror
In chapter 19 of the Odyssey, Homer writes about Penelope’s encounter with a mysterious guest. “Falsehoods all, but he gave his falsehoods all the ring of truth. As she listened on, her tears flowed and soaked her cheeks as the heavy snow melts down from the high...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Another FOMC meeting and another pass on a rate hike as the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and lowered its forecast for future interest rates. Stocks rallied even though Chairwoman Yellen provided a strong indication that a hike will occur before...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Markets recovered some of their losses from last week as the Nasdaq approaches an all-time high thanks to Apple’s resurgence in the midst of iPhone 7 demand. Median household income rose at the greatest rate in nearly a generation according to data...
Enlightenment in the Era of Central Banking: Fearing the Normal or Normalizing Fear?
The flowering of the Enlightenment across Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries took place when a diverse group of thinkers questioned perceived opinion. The names of Descartes, Spinoza, Locke, Hobbes, Leibniz, Hume and of many others are associated with free and...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Volatility returned to the markets in a big way with the VIX rising 40% and giving stocks their worst day since the Brexit vote. Among the factors being cited as the cause of Friday’s sell off is inaction by the ECB. Mario Draghi did not announce any new...
Masquerading Risks and Positioning Portfolios for Growth: The Centrally-Induced Fat Tails
The markets have been used to central banks actions that mitigate downturns (the famous/infamous puts that take the names of central bankers such as the Greenspan and Bernanke puts). Such actions actually induce risk taking, making the tail of outcomes and returns...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in July, below expectations, and wage gains were modest. In light of recent chatter by Fed officials on the timing of rate hikes the report suggests a September increase is unlikely, lifting stocks. British...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
August 2016 If we had to capture the mood at Jackson Hole (the meeting of central bankers) with just one word, it would be: anxiety. Despite participants putting on a brave face, there was a sense that central banks’ activism has run its course and is now increasingly...
Financial Stress, Valuations, and Realignment Risks: Is Uncertainty Looming?
The external debt of developing economies has more than tripled in the last ten years. Brazil of all countries is selling notes to yield-hungry investors that mature in 2047! Where is the rationale to buy 2047 notes in a country whose current deficit exceeds 10% of...
