Weekly Market Update
Market Action Another week of positive performance for U.S. equities comes in the midst of earnings season. So far, corporate profits have come in stronger than analyst expectations but still seem to be on track for the sixth consecutive decline. Of relief to market...
From the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis to the Turkey’s 2016 Failed Coup: Geopolitics and a Series of Dreams
Somewhere in the middle of the Pacific last weekend over dinner with Bob Zimmerman the lyrics of his song “A Series of Dreams” echoed in my ears. The attempted coup in Turkey was falling apart in the midst of geopolitical uncertainties from Asia (and the pertinent...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action US equities followed up on last week’s highs by resoundingly breaking out of their range bound trading zone of the past couple of years to set brand new peaks. Financials led the rally thanks to interest rates bouncing sharply off their all-time lows as...
Markets’ Disconnect, Political Pandering, and Business Climate: Valuations at the Dawn of Major Chinese Refinancing Needs
It seems that the bond and equities markets are telling us two different stories. The former with the declining – and in some major cases negative – yields is like foretelling a story of slow growth, rising risks, and absence of a capital spending drive. The latter...
Déjà vu all over again? Slouching Towards Regime Uncertainty
It is the argument of this commentary that following the Brexit vote we may be entering into a period of regime uncertainty. By the latter we mean political, economic, and financial regimes. This could turn out to be a déjà vu watershed period for the global economy...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
June 2016 Britain’s decision to exit the EU may constitute the first step on a “stairway to Hell”, throwing up a tangle of economic, financial, societal, legal, political and other issues of unfathomable complexity. The divorce will take years to play out and...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action After another dismal trading session in the wake of the Brexit vote markets stormed a reversal and posted a strong gains on the week, including London’s FTSE which had its best week in years. Despite the risk-on attitude it was defensive sectors...
An Illusion of Value: Zirflation and Nirflation in a Market that is Overfed but Still Malnourished
The Brexit vote (for which we reserve some doubts that it is ever completed) generated some panic selling, sending investors to the refuge of safe havens. Hence, government bonds experienced price gains and yields turned even lower. Now we live in interesting days...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Despite recent polling data and betting markets strongly pointing towards a vote for remaining with Europe, “Brexit” became a reality. The U.K.’s choice to exit the European Union sent risky assets into a tail spin. Stocks sold off around the world on...
Brexit, Delusions, Fiat Money, and Economic Prospects: Historical Reflections
“A greater Quantity [of money] employs more People than a lesser Quantity”, said John Law in 1705 in his pamphlet titled “Money and Trade Considered, with a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money.” And so started the story of paper money and credit, which...
