The Fading of Shocks and the Complacency Spirit: A Realistic Midterm/Longterm View
There is a sense of a cyclical recovery around the world. The shocks of the last 8-10 years (financial crisis, EU debt crisis, commodities downturn) seem to be fading, and in their place we observe rising expectations regarding growth. The latest IMF report on the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action French bond yields and spreads to benchmark German bonds narrowed throughout the course of the week as the nation heads to the polls. The race is a tight contest between four major candidates. Since no majority for anyone is expected, a runoff in May is...
Assessing Possible High Impact Outcomes: From Egypt to France, and from London to D.C.
As we go down the road where the improbable becomes probable and the non-tradable becomes tradable, we discuss below four possible outcomes that could alter the investment landscape. Those four are: The recently discovered offshore Egyptian energy resources; the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The dollar fell against a number of currencies on Thursday, particularly the Yen and Yuan, as President Trump declared China to not be a currency manipulator and that he believed the dollar was too strong. In addition, the President declared that he...
Complacency in the Midst of Market Cycles: Liquidity Pressures and Geopolitics
Money markets experienced some kind of distortion in the last 18-24 months due to global dollar shortages as the Fed got into the swing of “normalizing” rates. Money markets several times become the arteries of the financial system. If they get clogged, shortages are...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting were released this week and portions of their content caught markets by surprise. There was wide agreement among board members that the central bank should begin shrinking its balance sheet by year end as a...
Global Market Resilience: Noise, Global Trade, and Policy Directives
In the last couple of weeks a reality seems to be settling in the minds of over-optimistic investors. That reality says that it would not be so easy to enact legislation that will turn things around overnight. Moreover, investigations and questions about...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Brexit is officially a reality as Theresa May invoked Article 50 to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union. The maneuver sets off two years of negotiations on issues such as trade and immigration that will influence the entire future of the...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
March 2017 As in February, robust data continues to support the global synchronized economic recovery. A rise in global trade is taking hold (in volume terms, it just reached a 7-year high), with PMI / manufacturing activity above trend. So is consumer...
The Zadig & Micromega Perspective: Global Demand, Servicing the Debt, and Economic Developments
“Zadig” a.k.a. “Destiny: An Oriental Story” and “Micromegas” were two of Voltaire’s philosophical tales dated back in the middle of the 18th century. In the former Voltaire explores the reason’s inability to penetrate the deep mysteries of life as the enigma of the...
