Weekly Market Update
Market Action Another week and another set of new highs for major U.S. indices. The growth in stocks this week has pushed equities to their richest valuation (on a forward looking basis) since 2004. French bonds have been trading at double last year’s volume over the...
The Enigma of a Divergence: The Uncertainty Index vs. the Volatility Index
In last week’s commentary we wrote that the earnings, production, and income pictures look good and that the market has legs to make further earnings. The market continued in its upswing mode ignoring the above-average high multiples, but also the rising uncertainty...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action All three major U.S. indices hit record highs this week. Technology, Consumer Discretionary and other cyclical names led the way for the markets as enthusiasm for risk continues to grow. Crude oil prices were largely fell early in the week due to one of...
Corporate Earnings, Production, and Hourly Wages: No Enigma to Decipher
More than 65% of companies that have reported earnings in the last few days have beaten estimates, which is a little bit higher than the long-term average. So and as the graph below shows, it seems that the earnings recession is over and that corporate profits are in...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Markets ended the week strong in the U.S. but just missed posting gains across all three major averages. Earnings so far for corporations have come in strong with 65% of firms beating mean estimates. The U.S. jobs report showed a stronger labor market...
Worldviews, Solipsism, and Chissiaran: A Random Walk Down the Boulevard of Invincibility
Collective hallucinations are dangerous. Undershooting carries risks, but overshooting could have much more serious consequences. Ignoring history is detrimental. Hubris backfires and lack of foresight demonstrates foolishness. My fear is that in this meta-modernity...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
January 2017 The start of the Trump era is both a tipping point and a monumental paradigm shift. His “two simple rules: buy American and hire American” are the functional equivalent of a declaration of economic war, to which some countries - most notably China...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Dow crossed the illustrious 20,000 level this week, setting new highs in the process. Cyclical sectors dominated the markets, revitalizing bullish optimism. President Trump officially removed the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership this week and...
New Market Highs and Underperformers: Fundamentals Meet Technical Charts
The market celebrated a Dow Jones Industrial Average that reached 20,000 yesterday. Is this too much of good news? Is it sustainable and could it be that investors are carried away? Could a correction erase the good performance since November given the high market...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Defensive sectors (Consumer Staples, Telecommunications) led the market this week as stocks fell for the second consecutive week. Chinese GDP for 2016 grew at a rate of 6.7% according to data released Friday. While in the middle of the targeted range,...
