Tending the Garden: Credit Risks in the Ocean called Debt
Moody’s downgrade of Chinese debt a few days ago was treated like a non-event. Chinese domestic bond prices did not change and Chinese equity prices actually rose. Is that a sign of complacency?Chinese corporate sector debt exceeds 165% of China’s GDP. Of course when...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
May 2017 The synchronized economic recovery continues to make headway, but the US and China, the engines that propel the global economy, are set to decelerate soon. We give below the reasons why Trump’s 3% GDP target is unrealistic and why US growth is likely...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Moody’s lowered China’s credit rating by two notches this week citing surging liabilities and weakening financial strength within the country. The move marks the first rating downgrade of China in over 25 years and was greeted harshly by the country’s...
Financial Gravity and Paradigm Shifts: What Could Disrupt the Disruptors?
Over the course of the last year, investors poured billions of dollars into emerging markets, seeking higher yields and higher overall returns. Emerging markets have rewarded that trust, and as things are shaping up, it would not be surprising if emerging markets...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Euro hit its highest level in several months this week as the dollar fell for over five consecutive days. German elections that point to Merkel being reelected, Eurozone GDP growth, and other economic data points all contributed to the currency’s...
The Reshaping of Global Trade and Recent Economic Trends
A major Chinese conference related to the New Silk Road ended two days ago. The conference centered on the theme of “One Belt, One Road”, which is the Chinese equivalent of a Marshall Plan to dominate world trade via controls of railways, shipping routes, power...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. and China stuck an agreement on a 10 point trade package on Friday centered around good and services such as beef, poultry, natural gas, financial services and biotechnology. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross touts the deal as a means to reducing...
Sic Tranit Gloria Mundi: Defining Moments in Global Financial History and the Undercurrent of Today’s Developments
There are revolutions, wars, and historical periods that have defined global developments and carry significant weight in shaping up the world economy to this day. There is little if any doubt that France during the Revolutionary Wars, Britain during the Napoleonic...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The April employment report came in much stronger than expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, a post-crisis low on the heels of 211,000 jobs created in April. The report boosted the odds of a Fed rate hike in June to 80% according to market...
The Powerhouse of Structural Changes: Co-integration, Co-movement, and Disintegration
By 460 CE the Roman Army was dominated by Germanic troops. By that time they had also forgotten a basic lesson that it is the army that elects the Emperor. By 475 CE, the barbarian chief Odoacer replaced the Roman emperor with himself. The citizens of Rome selected...
