An Initial Look at Key Indicators for 2018: Could the Upswing Continue?
For this week’s commentary, we have chosen to look at three important indicators which could shape up the markets’ trajectory in 2018. We will start with the US which continues to be the locomotive of the markets’ direction. We are of the opinion that capital...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
October 2017 The IMF has just increased GDP forecasts for all advanced economies – with the exception of Spain and the UK. When everything is going well, it’s time to think about what might go wrong. Medium and longterm challenges abound, ranging from...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The US economy grew at a faster-than-forecast pace of 3% in the third quarter, handily beating 2.5% forecasts. Economists had expected a moderate Q3 slowdown because of the impacts of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Real consumer spending showed continued...
Electric Vehicles and Market Penetration: Investment Implications
In this week’s commentary, we opted to discuss electric vehicles (EVs). We are of the opinion that EVs present good opportunities for investment consideration. Such investments could look into at least two segments, namely the manufacturers and the materials that are...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities extended their gains this week and the Dow breached 23,000. Over the last week U.S. fund investors rushed into American and emerging market equities: Stock mutual funds and ETFs overall attracted $5.4B in the week ended Oct. 18, while...
Financial Stability and Business Cycle: Cicero on Risk Migration, Exogenous Shocks, and the Twin Engines
Resilient and liquid financial markets are essential to keeping the global economy going. A decade ago payments systems and capital markets seized up almost everywhere and a year later the world was facing a financial and economic abyss. The magnification of credit...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The MSCI World benchmark of large and mid-cap stocks reached a new all-time high on Wednesday amid gains in most Asian and European markets. Japan’s Nikkei advanced to its highest level since 1996, and European shares reached four-month highs this week....
Growth Forecasts and Policy Uncertainty: Implications for Portfolio Adjustments
A few days ago the IMF published its annual forecasts for developed and emerging economies. Five things are worth pointing out: First, when we review forecasts made for previous years it becomes obvious that the IMF is overestimating growth potential. Second,...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Movement regarding the U.S. budget and tax reform helped propel the S&P 500 to an unusual 8 consecutive days of new high closings. On Friday, when the U.S. Department of Labor reported a loss of 33,000 jobs in September (blamed on Hurricanes Harvey...
Market Valuations and Devolution: Mythos, Madness, or an Allegory?
Over the course of the last few days, some important pieces were published on the valuation of equities and bonds. At the same time we observed independent referendums taking place in Spain and in Kurdistan. The latter could possibly be signs of a devolutionary...
