Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
June 2017 Lowflation is back. Core inflation is softer than expected, notably in the US and Europe, but also in other countries like China. The resultant flattening bond yields (before this week’s sell-off) are complicating the task of the Fed and other central...
Reverberations and Growth Prospects: Implications for Equity and Fixed Income Markets
In the last few weeks two developments – related to key issues for the health of the global economy – have been unfolding. The first deals with European banks, and the second with the trajectory of oil prices. Last month two major Spanish banks (Santander and Intensa...
Weekly Market Update
 Market Action Healthcare stocks posted one of their strongest weeks of the year and now represent the second best performing group in 2017 so far. The rise coincides with release of the Senate’s healthcare bill, deemed to be more favorable to a number of industries...
Relevering Balance Sheets and Recalibrating Expectations: The Central Authorities Effect
Current financial and economic conditions in the US as well as in the EU are conducive to higher growth in the second half of the year. In addition, the shaping up of similar conditions in Asia and some other emerging and frontier markets point to a coordinated upward...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action World shares steadied on Friday after selling in the tech sector triggered their biggest fall in over a month, while the yen slid to a two-week low as the Bank of Japan signaled its stimulus was staying in place. Oil prices dipped this week to six-month...
Bullish Bias and Asset Classes Breakout: Diminishing Safety Margins
Last Friday we observed a divergence among major indexes. The DJIA and the NASDAQ moved in significantly opposite directions. The main reason for the drop in the NASDAQ (which continued on Monday) was said to be the inability of the main tech-related shares to reflect...
Weekly Market Update
Market Actions The British pound plunged to a seven-week low on Friday after Thursday's snap election that cost Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party its majority in Parliament. Global equity markets rallied at first on Friday then dropped as technology...
Disintegration in the Age of Discontent: Unraveling Realities and the Market
It seems that we are on the verge of a new reality that could resemble the developments of the early 1970s. The global rules and order that were established in July 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference came apart between summer of 1971 (abandonment of the gold...
Weekly Market Update
 Market Action The U.S. unemployment rate sank to its lowest level in 16 years after the May jobs report. The report says roughly 50,000 fewer jobs were created than the 185,000 anticipated but signs continue to point to a June rate increase from the Fed given overall...
Tending the Garden: Credit Risks in the Ocean called Debt
Moody’s downgrade of Chinese debt a few days ago was treated like a non-event. Chinese domestic bond prices did not change and Chinese equity prices actually rose. Is that a sign of complacency?Chinese corporate sector debt exceeds 165% of China’s GDP. Of course when...
