The Rising Turmoil in the Middle East and the Implications for Portfolio Hedging
There is no doubt that the death of Qassem Soleimani may become a stepping-stone for rising violence, turmoil, volatility, risks, and even a new war in a troubled region of the world. The uncertainty that it generates is exacerbated by the possibility that Russia or...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities changed little this week after gains made earlier in the week were given up after a US airstrike killed the top Iranian general in Baghdad, Iraq. The note on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 1.82 percent while the price of a...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: North America The United States (US) House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump for his...
On the Dialectic Morals of Statecraft: A Conversation with Johannes Bredenburg, Spinoza, Corrie Ten Boom, Amartya Sen, and Sir John Templeton.
In the boarding area I could clearly see three distinct figures: Johannes Bredenburg, Sir John Templeton, and Spinoza. I knew that I was destined for another treat in this end-of-year flight and I was hoping that more distinguished guests would join the journey. We...
Assessing the 2020 Outlook: Part II
In last week’s commentary, we outlined our overall assessment of a decent start for 2020, but expressed our skepticism for the rest of the year (see Assessing the 2020 Outlook: Part I ). The upbeat perspective of most of the analysts for 2020 is based on loose...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities reached record highs this week, driven in part by declining trade and geopolitical uncertainty. All three major US indices, as well as the STOXX 600 and MSCI, reached new milestones. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 9...
Assessing the 2020 Outlook: Part I
We started assessing the outlook for 2020 a few weeks ago. The truth of the matter is that we are facing two almost equally probable scenarios: The first one (adopted by the great majority of analysts) says that growth will continue next year and that the equity...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action By the end of the week, US equity markets were trading slightly below all-time highs set earlier in the day on Friday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note and Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index,...
The Titan has Fallen
Yesterday, was a very sad day for the US and the world. The economic giant Paul Volcker passed away. Paul Volcker by himself saved the economic system four times (with his counsel and famous memo to President John F. Kennedy related to the declining gold reserves in...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action By the end of the week global equities recovered from losses earlier in the week. This was partially due to a very strong US employment report. The strong data also pushed yields 8 basis points higher on the US 10-year Treasury note. A barrel of West...
