Deteriorating Economic Sentiment: Down the Path of Guicciardini’s Maxims
Yesterday the IMF downgraded its projections for economic growth. In its announcement it warned that such action is the result of self-inflicted wounds created by a “precarious” trade war. At a time when central banks are trying to be inventive again via monetary...Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equity markets were buoyed late in the week by hopes for a truce in the US–China trade war and optimism that a Brexit deal might be reached by the end of the month. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 19 basis points higher than a week...False Positive Signals Meet Immanuel Kant: Recessionary Indications & Portfolio Considerations
Composite models that assess the risk of a recession in the next 12 months indicate that the probability of a recession happening in the next 12 months has fallen slightly. However, such reading in our humble opinion is mistaken due to a false positive signal related...The Mispricing of Assets, the Repricing of Expectations, and the Incineration of Reason: Investment Strategy in the Valley of the Missing Link
What do the US and UK political developments as well as the stock market valuation have to do with the Peloponnesian War fought between Athens and Sparta (431-404 BCE)? In all cases, observers want to know the future as unique (possibly extraordinary) developments are...Sign Up for Our Publications
