Weekly Market Update

Global Market News

Global Equities Take Losses

Global equities were broadly lower on the week amid concerns about the valuation of tech and semiconductors. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined eight basis points to 4.37%, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $72 per barrel on expectations that a signed agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, sank modestly to 18.4 from 19.7.

Updated Market Figures

Oil Prices Return to Prewar Levels

Oil prices fell back toward prewar levels this week, reversing much of the Iran conflict-driven spike that had lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel, as easing supply concerns and resilient output from key producers helped stabilize global markets. Benchmark prices are now hovering in the mid-$70 range, prompting analysts to lower near-term energy inflation forecasts while maintaining cautious outlooks on demand, with traders increasingly pricing in a more balanced market through 2026 despite lingering geopolitical risks.

International Developments

Consecutive Earthquakes Rattle Venezuela

Venezuela is reeling after a pair of powerful earthquakes measuring about 7.2 and 7.5 struck on June 24, causing widespread destruction across northern regions, including Caracas and La Guaira, with the death toll climbing into the hundreds, and thousands more injured or missing as rescuers continue to search collapsed buildings. Recovery efforts are ongoing but challenging due to damaged infrastructure, power outages, and strained emergency systems, with national authorities mobilizing military units, health services, and volunteers while prioritizing search-and-rescue operations, medical care, and distribution of food, water, and shelter. The international response has been swift, with countries such as Mexico and the United States deploying urban search-and-rescue teams and aerial assessment support, and others—including regional neighbors and global partners—sending aid, medical teams, and equipment, while organizations like the UN, IOM, and NGOs coordinate humanitarian assistance ranging from emergency shelter to healthcare and sanitation. Despite these efforts, officials warn that the full scale of the disaster is still unfolding and that long-term recovery will require sustained international support to rebuild infrastructure and assist vulnerable communities.

Türkiye Hosts 2026 NATO Summit

The upcoming NATO Summit, scheduled for July 7–8 in Ankara, Türkiye, is shaping up to be a pivotal gathering for the alliance, combining broad strategic priorities with several highly consequential political and defense issues. Leaders are expected to focus on strengthening collective defense, boosting military spending commitments, and ensuring sustained support for Ukraine as the war with Russia continues, while also addressing emerging threats such as cyber warfare and regional instability. At the same time, specific issues involving the host country are likely to play an outsized role in shaping discussions, particularly Türkiye’s strategic position within NATO and ongoing negotiations with the United States over a potential return to the F-35 fighter jet program—an issue tied to broader questions about alliance cohesion, defense industrial cooperation, and balancing relations with Russia. The summit is also drawing scrutiny over transparency and access, as strict media accreditation rules and the possibility of journalists being denied entry have raised concerns about press freedom at a major international forum. Taken together, the meeting is expected to serve not only as a platform for reaffirming NATO’s long-term security agenda, but also as a test of its internal unity and its ability to navigate politically sensitive issues that could influence the alliance’s direction in the years ahead.

US-Iran Deal: Tentative Peace, Uncertain Details

The United States and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement that aims to end months of conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift certain U.S. sanctions, and establish a 60‑day negotiating window to finalize a broader settlement, though the full text has not been publicly released, and implementation details remain opaque. Initial provisions reportedly include a cessation of hostilities, the resumption of global oil flows, and preliminary commitments on Iran’s nuclear program, such as diluting or disposing of enriched uranium and allowing some form of oversight, but the most contentious elements—limits on uranium enrichment, the future of nuclear facilities, sanctions relief, and Iran’s missile program—are still unresolved and deferred to ongoing talks. Negotiations have proven fragile, with planned follow-on meetings disrupted by regional violence and both sides acknowledging that key technical details and verification mechanisms must still be hammered out before any final deal is secured. Crucially, Israel and Hezbollah were not parties to the negotiations, even though the agreement is intended to affect conflicts involving them, particularly in Lebanon, creating tensions as Israel has rejected being bound by terms it did not negotiate and continues operations against Hezbollah, while Iran insists that a cessation of fighting in Lebanon is inseparable from the deal. This complex diplomatic picture highlights the challenge of turning a bilateral U.S.-Iran accord into a durable, region-wide peace framework.

US Social & Political Developments

U.S. Supreme Court Expands Executive Power Over Immigration Enforcement

The U.S. Supreme Court issued a series of significant immigration rulings on June 25, 2026, that collectively expand executive authority over deportation, asylum, and humanitarian protections, most notably by allowing the Trump administration to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Haiti and Syria. In a 6–3 decision, the Court ruled that federal law largely bars judicial review of TPS determinations, effectively preventing lower courts from blocking or delaying the termination of protections and clearing the way for deportations to proceed. The ruling immediately affects more than 350,000 Haitians and about 6,000 Syrians and could set a broader precedent impacting up to 1.3 million migrants from multiple countries whose status may now be more easily revoked. In parallel decisions, the Court also backed the administration’s stricter border policies, including allowing authorities to turn away asylum seekers before they set foot on U.S. soil and expanding enforcement tools against certain immigrants, further tightening access to protections under U.S. immigration law. These rulings mark a major shift toward limiting court oversight and reinforcing presidential control over immigration policy, with immediate humanitarian and legal consequences for migrants relying on TPS and asylum pathways.

Bipartisan Legislation Jeopardized by Trump Administration’s Voter Registration Agenda

Congress has recently made significant progress on a sweeping bipartisan effort to address the U.S. housing affordability crisis, culminating in the passage of the “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act,” a major legislative package aimed at increasing housing supply and lowering costs nationwide. The bill cleared both chambers with overwhelming bipartisan support—passing the Senate by margins as wide as 85–5 and the House by 358–32—reflecting rare agreement after months of negotiations between lawmakers in both parties. However, the legislation has been thrown into uncertainty after President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned signing ceremony and announced he will not sign the bill until Congress passes a separate election measure, the SAVE America Act, which would impose nationwide voter ID and citizenship verification requirements. This decision has intensified tensions between the White House and Congress, particularly with Senate Republicans who say the voting bill lacks sufficient support to pass and were reportedly caught off guard by the move, complicating efforts to advance the administration’s broader legislative agenda. The standoff also risks undermining one of the few major bipartisan achievements in a deeply divided Congress, potentially depriving both parties of a key policy win on affordability ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, where housing costs and cost-of-living concerns are expected to be central campaign issues.

Corporate/Sector News

Oracle Lays Off 13% of Workforce

Oracle disclosed in its annual regulatory filing this week that it cut 21,000 employees over the past fiscal year, reducing its global headcount by roughly 13% to 141,000 full-time workers and incurring approximately $1.84 billion in restructuring costs. In a notable disclosure, the company explicitly acknowledged that AI adoption had directly eliminated some roles, stating that “the adoption and deployment of AI technologies across our operations have resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce.” The cuts reflect the financial pressure Oracle faces from an aggressive and capital-intensive AI data center buildout, with the company projecting $70 billion in capital expenditures this fiscal year, up from $55.7 billion the prior year, driven in large part by a landmark agreement under which OpenAI is expected to purchase roughly $300 billion in computing capacity over approximately five years. The Oracle layoffs are part of a broader pattern across the technology sector, with Meta and Amazon also cutting thousands of jobs as established tech giants restructure their workforces to compete with AI-native startups. Oracle acknowledged the strategic bind at the center of this transition, warning that failing to invest heavily in AI risks falling behind competitors, while over-investment risks failing to recoup costs if its AI products do not achieve sufficient market acceptance.

Global Semiconductor Selloff

Global equity markets suffered a sharp AI-driven selloff this week as investors began questioning whether chip and technology valuations had run too far ahead of fundamentals. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.9%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.3%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, with all 30 semiconductor index members declining. The most dramatic move occurred in South Korea, where the KOSPI fell 10.5% and triggered a circuit breaker after reports that SK Hynix was slowing AI memory chip expansion and shifting toward cheaper commodity DRAM. SpaceX shed roughly $600 billion in market value over three sessions following its post-IPO surge, while Micron fell 13% ahead of earnings. European semiconductor names, including ASML, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics, also posted sharp declines. Analysts drew comparisons to the late 1990s dot-com cycle, warning that while AI profit growth has so far prevented the worst excesses from re-emerging, markets remain highly vulnerable to any challenge to the AI spending narrative. On a more constructive note, Brent crude slipped to $77 per barrel as the Trump administration temporarily lifted oil sanctions on Iran, and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed early signs of recovery

Apple Raises Prices

Apple raised prices across its Mac and iPad product lines on Thursday by 15% to 25%, marking the most sweeping simultaneous price increases in the company’s modern history, driven by an unprecedented shortage of memory and storage chips whose prices have quadrupled over the past 12 months amid surging AI data center demand. Among the increases, the base MacBook Air rose $200 to $1,299, the base MacBook Pro increased $300 to $1,999, and the base iPad increased $100 to $449. Apple shares fell 6.1% on the day, their steepest single-session decline since April 2025. iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods prices were left unchanged for now, though Apple hinted at further adjustments across additional product categories. The increases arrived the day after Micron Technology reported blowout quarterly earnings with gross profit margins exceeding 80%, with executives projecting tight memory supply conditions persisting beyond 2027. Apple CEO Tim Cook acknowledged the company had absorbed cost increases for as long as possible but had reached a breaking point, and the memory shortage is also expected to push prices higher on the September iPhone 18 lineup, which includes a flagship foldable model likely to exceed $2,000.