CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded over the last month in the Middle East/North Africa, Asia (ex-China/India/Japan), Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead.

Middle East & North Africa

The damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure since the outbreak of the Iran war represents one of the most consequential shocks to global energy security in decades, with long‑lasting implications for LNG supply. In the first 72 hours of the conflict, Iranian drone strikes forced QatarEnergy to halt LNG production at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City, hitting critical facilities. Subsequent attacks escalated dramatically: on March 18–19, Iranian ballistic missiles struck Ras Laffan, causing “extensive damage” and large fires across the world’s largest LNG export hub, crippling multiple LNG plants and the Pearl GTL complex, and prompting QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on deliveries. As Qatar—normally responsible for nearly 20% of global LNG exports—shut down production, European benchmark gas futures surged by the largest margin since the 2022 energy crisis, and Asian LNG prices spiked sharply, reflecting the scale of anticipated shortages. With repairs likely to require years given the specialized nature of LNG equipment, the extensive fire damage, and the continuing threat of further attacks, the global energy system faces structurally tighter gas markets, elevated price volatility, and renewed competition among Europe and Asia for limited supply. The compounded risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz further heightens these long‑term pressures, ensuring that the shocks from Qatar’s damaged infrastructure will be felt worldwide for years to come.
There is rising concern that the Houthis could escalate their involvement in the Iran war, creating another potential choke point in the Red Sea and amplifying the global economic costs of the conflict. Since the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28th, the Houthis have held mass protests, issued statements of solidarity with Tehran, and delivered speeches condemning the attacks, but have so far refrained from officially launching new military operations. Despite this public restraint, U.S. and regional intelligence sources have indicated that Houthi leadership is preparing to resume attacks on international shipping and possibly Israel, following reports that Iran instructed them to reactivate operations in the Red Sea. Any renewed Houthi campaign targeting vessels near Bab al‑Mandab would risk creating a second major maritime chokepoint, adding further strain to energy markets, shipping costs, insurance rates, and global supply chains already destabilized by the broader regional conflict.
Lebanon has emerged as a secondary front in the broader Middle East conflict, with escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah driving a severe humanitarian crisis while exposing deeper structural weaknesses in the Lebanese state. Israeli airstrikes, launched in response to Hezbollah attacks aligned with Iran, have killed hundreds, displaced close to one million people, and triggered widespread destruction across southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut, prompting warnings from the United Nations that the country risks further devastation without urgent diplomatic intervention. The crisis has underscored the central role of Hezbollah, whose continued armed presence and ties to Iran have long undermined Lebanese sovereignty and complicated efforts to stabilize the country, even as Israel’s military campaign risks further weakening the Lebanese government and alienating the population. International efforts are now coalescing around potential negotiations to end the fighting and address Hezbollah’s disarmament, with European actors, the UN, and regional stakeholders pushing for talks, though divisions remain over sequencing and conditions, particularly calls for a ceasefire first. Analysts argue the situation presents a narrow but significant opportunity for the United States to reassert diplomatic leadership by supporting Lebanon’s reform-oriented government, strengthening state institutions, and mediating a longer-term settlement with Israel, but warn that without credible Lebanese action to curb Hezbollah, continued escalation could deepen instability and risk a broader regional war.
Saudi Arabia’s flagship Vision 2030 megaprojects—once central to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s narrative of unstoppable transformation—are undergoing a sharp reality check as fiscal pressures, war‑related instability, and waning investor confidence force dramatic scaling back. The most striking example is NEOM’s “The Line”, where tunneling contracts have been cancelled and the original 170‑km plan has been cut to as little as 2.4 km, reflecting what analysts describe as a dawning recognition that the trillion‑dollar vision exceeded economic and political constraints. Meanwhile, the UAE—especially Dubai—is confronting unprecedented pressure on its long‑cultivated role as the region’s safe haven, after waves of Iranian missile and drone attacks since the Iran war’s outbreak shook investor confidence, damaged infrastructure, and triggered significant outflows of expatriates and tourists. Reports describe deserted beaches, evacuation alerts, attacks on data centers and hotels, and even airport disruptions. Despite robust air defenses, the psychological impact of Dubai being directly targeted has raised questions about whether the city can maintain its status as the Gulf’s premier sanctuary for global capital and talent amid an increasingly volatile regional security environment.
Fighting between Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has escalated into the most serious bilateral confrontation in years, raising fears of a broader regional crisis as sustained airstrikes, artillery exchanges, and cross border raids have killed hundreds, displaced well over 100,000 people, and severely disrupted trade, infrastructure, and daily life along the frontier. Pakistan has led the escalation with a campaign of airstrikes targeting what it says are militant strongholds, following years of attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan that Islamabad claims are being supported or tolerated by Kabul, an allegation the Afghan Taliban denies. Civilian areas, health facilities, and border transit hubs have been hit, compounding an already severe humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, where nearly half the population depends on aid. Afghan forces, while outmatched conventionally, have responded with drone strikes and border attacks, raising the risk of asymmetric escalation against a nuclear armed Pakistan already facing internal instability. The conflict marks a sharp reversal of Pakistan’s past support for the Taliban and reflects a deeper breakdown in regional security dynamics, as diplomatic efforts by China and other regional actors have failed to halt the violence. With a fragile truce intermittently emerging and collapsing, analysts warn that continued escalation could destabilize South and Central Asia, revive militant safe havens, and draw in external powers if the conflict continues to intensify unchecked.
As regional attention shifts to the escalating U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, Gaza has fallen into a renewed state of uncertainty and humanitarian strain, with residents increasingly feeling sidelined as fragile postwar recovery efforts stall. Israel has tightened control over access to the enclave, at times closing crossings and limiting the flow of goods and people, contributing to rising food prices, panic buying, and worsening living conditions for a population already devastated by two years of war that killed tens of thousands and left much of Gaza in ruins. At the same time, progress on a U.S.-backed political plan for Gaza has largely stalled, particularly over the unresolved issue of Hamas disarmament and governance, with Israel rejecting any future role for Hamas affiliated security forces. On the ground, Israeli strikes have continued despite a ceasefire, increasingly targeting Hamas linked police forces that have reemerged to maintain order in parts of the territory, underscoring Israel’s effort to prevent the group from reestablishing control. These dynamics have left Gaza’s roughly two million residents caught between competing political and military pressures, with limited aid access, ongoing violence, and no clear path toward reconstruction or long-term stability.
Market Implications: MENA markets are dominated by geopolitical events. The U.S. push for a multilateral security coalition in the Strait of Hormuz is important because disruptions there threaten a major global energy corridor. While reduced shipping boosts Gulf exporters’ short‑term revenues, it also raises insurance, freight, and risk premiums across the region. Compounding these pressures is the growing risk that the Houthis could intervene more directly, potentially creating an additional Red Sea choke point and further elevating the global economic costs of the war. Energy markets also face a long‑lasting structural shock after Iranian missile and drone attacks caused extensive damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, with repercussions for global gas supplies likely to persist for years. Afghanistan‑Pakistan tensions mostly affect sentiment, keeping sovereign spreads volatile and supporting a move toward safer assets. Discussions around Gaza disarmament keep hopes for future reconstruction alive, but markets remain cautious due to unresolved funding and troop‑withdrawal issues. Lebanon is similar: diplomatic efforts continue, yet Israel’s rejection of the latest proposal and Hezbollah’s constraints limit progress. Overall, MENA markets are likely to remain volatile as geopolitical risks continue to dominate.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Cuba is facing a deepening economic and energy crisis marked by a nationwide blackout that left much of the island’s 11 million people without power, underscoring the collapse of its aging electrical grid, chronic fuel shortages, and lack of investment, while worsening already fragile living conditions as food spoils, medical procedures are delayed, and basic services falter. The crisis has been compounded by the loss of external energy support, particularly from Venezuela, and ongoing U.S. pressure, including threats of tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, which Havana blames for exacerbating its shortages. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signaled a more aggressive posture toward the island, openly discussing the possibility of regime change, a “friendly takeover,” and leadership transition, while engaging in quiet talks with Cuban officials that could mirror past normalization efforts but under conditions of greater U.S. leverage. As Washington pushes for political and economic reforms, including the release of political prisoners, Cuba’s leadership is exploring limited economic openings, such as allowing greater diaspora investment, but analysts warn that without significant structural change or external support, the country risks further economic collapse, social unrest, and potential mass migration.
The United States is expanding its security and geopolitical footprint in Latin America through parallel efforts in Ecuador and Venezuela, reflecting a broader push to combat organized crime while reshaping regional political alignments. In Ecuador, U.S. and Ecuadorian forces have launched joint military operations targeting drug trafficking networks, with Quito seeking expanded international support as violence linked to narcotics and illegal mining intensifies in a country that has become a key transit hub for cocaine shipments to global markets. At the same time, Washington has rapidly reestablished diplomatic ties with Venezuela following the ousting of Nicolás Maduro, marking a dramatic shift in relations as the U.S. engages the new leadership while exerting significant influence over the country’s oil sector and pursuing access to critical mineral resources. While the rapprochement includes steps toward political normalization, including the release of prisoners and potential future elections, power structures tied to the previous regime largely remain intact, raising questions about the depth of political change.
Recent operations against major drug cartels in Mexico highlight an intensifying, increasingly militarized campaign backed in part by the United States, as authorities target high level figures amid mounting pressure from Washington. U.S. intelligence, including support from the CIA and a newly formed Pentagon led task force, played a key role in helping Mexican forces locate and kill Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel, in an operation that triggered widespread retaliatory violence across the country. In parallel, Mexican forces carried out additional raids, including one in Sinaloa that killed 11 people and resulted in the capture of a senior cartel faction leader, underscoring a broader “decapitation strategy” aimed at dismantling criminal networks. However, while these efforts demonstrate closer U.S.-Mexico security cooperation and a tougher stance on narcotics trafficking, analysts warn that targeting cartel leadership can fragment organizations and fuel further violence, without addressing underlying drivers such as corruption, poverty, and arms flows, raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.
Chile’s newly inaugurated president José Antonio Kast has moved quickly to implement a hardline agenda centered on border security and economic reform, beginning construction of a fortified northern border barrier aimed at curbing illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and organized crime. His “Border Shield” plan includes trenches, walls, surveillance drones, and military patrols along key crossing points, reflecting a broader rightward shift in Chilean politics, and drawing comparisons to U.S. policies under Donald Trump. The measures come amid a sharp rise in migration, with over 300,000 undocumented migrants—many from Venezuela—fueling public concern over crime and social stability, though critics argue the barrier may be largely symbolic given the vast and difficult terrain. Alongside his security push, Kast is advancing an ambitious domestic agenda that includes tax cuts, reduced government spending, and reconstruction funding for fire-damaged regions, though he faces a fragmented Congress that may complicate implementation. Early polling suggests strong public support for his approach, but the coming months will test whether his administration can translate rapid initial actions into lasting policy outcomes.
Brazil’s October 2026 elections have become increasingly competitive, with a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a technical tie in a simulated run‑off, separated by just one percentage point. The poll also shows Lula holding around 46% in multiple first‑round scenarios, while Flávio Bolsonaro captures 36–42%, reflecting a steady tightening of the race as Bolsonaro consolidates the right‑wing electorate amid his father’s endorsement from prison. With Lula’s approval under pressure from a cooling economy and recent political controversies, and with markets reacting to the Bolsonaro family’s renewed momentum, the 2026 contest is shaping up to be Brazil’s most unpredictable in decades.
Market Implications: Latin American markets are moving more on country‑specific stories than broad regional trends. Cuba’s severe power outages—driven by fuel shortages and tighter U.S. sanctions—don’t affect major markets directly, but they do remind investors that political and energy risks can spill over into nearby Caribbean economies. Chile looks like a brighter spot, with the new government emphasizing tighter finances and stronger borders, which supports the currency and confidence in local businesses. Ecuador’s new security cooperation with the U.S. offers some reassurance but also introduces new risks tied to potential conflict, while renewed U.S.–Venezuela engagement opens the door to long‑term rebuilding for Venezuelan energy and services. Brazil, whose economy had been performing well until recently, now finds itself at a more delicate moment as election uncertainty rises and growth momentum softens. The S&P Latin America 40 Index has done well so far this year, gaining more than 10%, despite global geopolitical headwinds.

Asia & Pacific (ex-China/India/Japan)

South Korea’s parliament has approved a landmark investment framework enabling up to $350 billion in Korean investment into U.S. strategic industries, solidifying a key component of a broader bilateral trade deal aimed at stabilizing tariffs and deepening economic ties. The legislation establishes a state-backed investment corporation to finance projects across sectors such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, energy, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals, with annual funding capped around $20 billion and full implementation expected by mid-2026. The move comes amid ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty and political pressure from Washington, including threats to raise tariffs if Seoul failed to act, making the bill’s passage a signal of South Korea’s commitment to maintaining favorable trade terms. Safeguards such as commercial viability requirements and risk oversight mechanisms have been built in, though exceptions are allowed for national security and supply chain resilience.
South Korea’s equity market has surged to global prominence, recently overtaking Germany to become the world’s 10th‑largest stock market, powered by an extraordinary rally in its leading technology champions amid an AI and robotics boom. This rise has been driven largely by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, whose dominance in advanced memory and AI‑enabling chips has positioned Korea at the center of the global AI supply chain, with both companies benefiting from soaring demand tied to Nvidia’s AI infrastructure expansion. The two firms collectively account for nearly 79% of profit growth among Korea’s top 500 companies, amplifying the market’s momentum. Although Korean equities plunged alongside global markets during the peak of Iran‑related tensions, given it relies on the Middle East for around 70% of its oil imports, the market has started to recover. Their leadership, combined with broader enthusiasm for automation and robotics—boosting names like Hyundai Motor—has helped South Korea add $1.7 trillion in market value since early 2025, cementing its status as a pivotal hub for the three defining megatrends of the decade: AI, electrification, and defense.
Myanmar’s military has formally reestablished a parliament for the first time since its 2021 coup, but the move is widely seen as a consolidation of junta control rather than a genuine return to democracy, with the military and its allies holding roughly 90% of seats after elections that excluded major opposition parties and saw low participation. The army backed Union Solidarity and Development Party dominates the legislature alongside constitutionally guaranteed military seats, allowing junta chief Min Aung Hlaing to shape the presidency and broader governance structure, potentially reinforced by a new “superbody” council designed to maintain centralized authority. Critics, including Western governments and UN officials, have dismissed the process as a sham aimed at legitimizing military rule amid an ongoing civil war and humanitarian crisis, while the jailed former leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her dissolved party remain sidelined. Despite the junta’s claims that the new parliament signals political normalization and could ease sanctions, analysts argue it represents little more than a rebranding of military dominance under a civilian façade.
North Korea has escalated military activity with a series of ballistic and cruise missile tests, signaling defiance toward the United States and South Korea amid ongoing joint military exercises and broader global tensions. Pyongyang fired around 10 ballistic missiles into the sea in response to U.S.-South Korea drills, which it continues to frame as invasion rehearsals, while also advancing its naval capabilities by test-launching “strategic” cruise missiles from a new destroyer as part of an expanding push to integrate nuclear capabilities into its navy. The demonstrations come as diplomacy remains stalled, with North Korea rejecting denuclearization talks and instead deepening ties with Russia while aligning rhetorically with Iran, highlighting a more confrontational posture. The tests underscore growing regional security concerns, particularly as questions arise about U.S. force posture in South Korea amid Middle East commitments and reflect Pyongyang’s broader strategy of leveraging military development to strengthen deterrence and bargaining power.
Japan’s decision to provide rare earth refining technology and training to Malaysia reflects a broader intensifying competition among major powers to secure critical mineral supply chains and reduce dependence on China, which currently dominates roughly 90% of global rare earth refining. By leveraging development aid and long-term technical cooperation, Japan is attempting to build local capacity in Malaysia, which holds an estimated 16 million tons of rare earth reserves but lacks the infrastructure to fully exploit them, while also positioning itself for preferential access to future supply. This effort directly intersects with parallel moves by China, which is also seeking to expand its footprint in Malaysia’s rare earth sector through investment and technology transfers, highlighting a strategic contest over influence in a key emerging resource hub. This development reinforces the trend of Beijing using its dominance in critical minerals as both an economic and geopolitical lever, prompting coordinated “de-risking” efforts by the United States, Japan, and their partners.
Australia is also becoming a pivotal global supplier of critical minerals and rare earths as countries work to reduce reliance on China’s processing dominance. Canberra’s new A$1 billion Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve supports domestic projects, onshore refining, and stockpiles of minerals such as antimony, gallium, and rare earths. International partnerships—especially the U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Framework, which commits at least $1 billion to accelerate allied supply chains—further strengthen Australia’s role. The Australia–EU Free Trade Agreement removes tariffs on nearly all Australian critical mineral exports, cementing its position as a reliable supplier for clean‑energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing sectors.
Market Implications: Asian markets are trading on a barbell setup, with policy support in South Korea and parts of ASEAN offset by lingering geopolitical risk discounts. South Korea’s new law tied to the U.S. investment pledge boosts semiconductors, shipbuilding, AI, and critical minerals, supporting chaebols (large, family-owned business conglomerates in South Korea) and industrial names despite currency and execution uncertainties. Myanmar’s parliamentary session reduces immediate headline risk but does not meaningfully improve its long‑term investability under continued military control. North Korea’s missile activity keeps a risk premium embedded in Korean cyclicals, while Japan‑Malaysia rare earth cooperation offers a cleaner positive catalyst for Malaysia’s strategic‑materials sector. Overall, the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index has gained more than 3% year-to-date, despite the geopolitical volatility in the Middle East rattling global markets.

Sub-Saharan Africa

The United States is preparing to deploy about 200 troops to Nigeria in a training and advisory role to support local forces fighting Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province, marking an expansion of security cooperation following U.S. airstrikes against suspected militant targets and ongoing surveillance operations. Nigerian authorities have stressed that the American personnel will not take part in combat, while Washington has framed the move as part of a broader counterterrorism partnership, amid political pressure from the Trump administration over claims that Christians are being targeted by militants, an assertion the Nigerian government rejects, noting that both Muslim and Christian communities have been affected by the violence. The deployment reflects a renewed U.S. military focus on West Africa’s longest-running insurgency, which continues to destabilize the country’s northwest despite years of conflict and poses wider regional security concerns.
The African Union summit in Addis Ababa has highlighted both renewed calls for reform of global governance and the growing impact of external rivalries and shifting U.S. policy on the continent’s strategic environment. UN Secretary General António Guterres urged structural changes to international financial institutions and the UN Security Council to give Africa greater representation, alongside expanded support for peace operations, climate adaptation, and value-added control over critical minerals, framing these as essential to correcting systemic inequalities. At the same time, Gulf competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates across the Horn of Africa has deepened regional fault lines by backing rival actors in conflicts from Sudan to Somalia, forcing African governments to avoid alignment while protecting their own security and economic interests. The summit has also been shaped by uncertainty over the United States’ more transactional approach under President Donald Trump, including major aid cuts, tariff pressure and a shift toward bilateral resource and security deals, prompting many African states to hedge by strengthening ties with alternative partners while emphasizing multilateralism, strategic autonomy and a greater role for Africa as a normative actor in global affairs.
A proposed U.S.–Democratic Republic of Congo minerals partnership has triggered growing domestic opposition as President Félix Tshisekedi seeks to exchange access to vast reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, and coltan for security support and infrastructure investment, a strategy aligned with Washington’s broader effort to counter China’s dominance in critical mineral supply chains. Critics in Congo, including opposition figures, civil society groups, and church leaders, argue the negotiations lack transparency, risk undermining sovereignty, and may entrench a model in which the country remains a raw material supplier while local communities see limited economic benefit and face displacement, environmental damage, and continued insecurity in the rebel-held east. Analysts expect intensifying U.S.–China competition over resources in Congolese territory, but note that the success of any agreement will depend on whether it delivers tangible development gains and contributes to stabilizing conflict zones that currently host many of the most valuable mining sites.
The United States has granted a short-term extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act until the end of 2026, preserving duty-free access for eligible sub-Saharan African exports but introducing new uncertainty as the program is set to be reshaped to align with the Trump administration’s America First trade policy. The agreement underpins more than $100 billion in annual U.S.–Africa trade and supports key sectors such as textiles, autos, and agriculture, yet its brief renewal contrasts with previous decade-long extensions and comes amid tariffs, aid cuts, and political tensions with major beneficiaries, including South Africa and Nigeria. Washington has signaled that future participation will require greater market access for U.S. goods and stricter reciprocal terms, prompting concern among African governments and businesses and accelerating efforts by some countries to diversify economic partnerships, particularly toward China and other external partners.
Market Implications: Sub‑Saharan African assets are adjusting to a mix of geopolitical shifts and emerging industrial‑policy themes. Nigeria is back in focus after the U.S. confirmed a non‑combat troop deployment to support security training—helpful for sentiment in Eurobonds and oil‑linked equities, though it underscores continued insurgency risks that keep FX volatility and local funding costs elevated. At the African Union summit, the 2026 water‑and‑sanitation agenda points to future blended‑finance and ESG issuance opportunities, although sovereign debt sustainability remains the main constraint. The one‑year extension of AGOA through 2026 offers short‑term relief for key exporters, but the limited duration tempers confidence in long‑dated investment.

Top News This Month

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia & Pacific (ex-China/India/Japan)

Sub-Saharan Africa

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