Weekly Market Update

Global Market News

Global Equities Decline

Global equities declined on the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq decreased 2.02% and 1.24%, respectively, while the Dow Jones dropped 3.01%. The US 10-year Treasury note sharply increased 20 basis points from a week ago to close the week at 4.14%. Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil skyrocketed more than 36% to end the week at $91.30 as the conflict in the Middle East continues. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, jumped 26% over the week to close Friday at 29.49.

Updated Market Figures

February Jobs Report Rekindles Labor Market Concerns

US non‑farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, well below expectations for a 55,000 increase, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. Much of the decline came from a sharp drop in health care employment, driven in part by a strike at Kaiser Permanente and severe winter weather. The weak report contrasts with strong job gains in January and has renewed concerns that the labor market may not yet be stabilizing after a soft 2025, which was the weakest year for hiring outside of a recession. Treasuries rallied, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased following the release. Equity markets moved lower on Friday in response to the disappointing data.

International Developments

Middle East Engulfed as US–Israel–Iran War Explodes Across Region

The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a widening regional conflict marked by large scale missile, drone, and air strikes across the Middle East. Since the start of the conflict, US and Israeli forces have reportedly struck more than 2,000 Iranian targets including missile sites, naval assets, and leadership facilities. Iran has retaliated with thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles targeting US bases, embassies, and infrastructure across the Gulf. Air strikes have expanded beyond military assets to include energy infrastructure and civilian sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Fighting has killed over 1,200 people in Iran, many of which were civilians. The death toll now includes six US service members as well as more civilians in Israel and other Gulf states. The conflict has disrupted global energy markets as tanker traffic screeches to a halt in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf governments face a strategic dilemma as they attempt to defend themselves from Iranian strikes, while avoiding direct involvement in the war, fearing that further escalation could destabilize their economies and infrastructure. The conflict has become increasingly internationalized in recent days: US officials say Russia has begun providing Iran with intelligence on American military positions to enable more precise strikes on radar systems and command infrastructure. Meanwhile, the US and regional allies are seeking Ukraine’s expertise in countering Iranian Shahed drones. Washington maintains that Iran’s military capabilities are being steadily degraded. The ongoing missile exchanges, dwindling reserves of interceptor missiles, energy disruptions, and foreign involvement suggest that the conflict could continue reshaping the region in the weeks ahead.

Europe Ramps Up Protection Efforts in Eastern Mediterranean

European countries are increasing their military presence in the eastern Mediterranean as the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran expands across the region. Several nations including France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Greece, and the Netherlands are deploying naval vessels, fighter jets, air defense systems, and counter-drone capabilities to protect Cyprus, regional shipping routes, and their citizens from Iranian retaliatory strikes. France has redirected its aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and Rafale fighter jets to the Mediterranean and Gulf region, while Britain has deployed the destroyer HMS Dragon, helicopters equipped with anti-drone missiles, and fighter aircraft conducting defensive patrols. Greece has sent F-16 fighter jets and warships to Cyprus, and Spain plans to deploy its Cristobal Colon frigate, while Italy is supplying air defense and anti-drone systems to Gulf partners. These developments follow Iranian drone attacks on the British RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus and strikes on other regional installations, highlighting fears that the conflict could spill closer to Europe. European governments have largely declined to join the US-Israeli offensive against Iran and some leaders even questioned its legality. Nevertheless, they are coordinating defensive operations to safeguard civilians, military bases, and critical shipping routes that are vital to global trade and energy supplies.

US-Ecuador Launch Joint Military Operation

The United States and Ecuador have launched a joint military campaign targeting drug trafficking networks as part of a broader US strategy to treat cartels as security threats rather than purely criminal organizations. The operation, coordinated with US Southern Command, involves Ecuadorian forces conducting raids on drug facilities and organized crime networks while US personnel provide training, intelligence, and logistical support. American troops are not directly participating in combat. The effort reflects Ecuador’s escalating struggle with cartel violence tied to drug trafficking and illegal mining. Early operations have yielded some results including a recent discovery of a clandestine trafficking camp near the Colombian border and a seized 115 foot “narco-submersible” along with speedboats, fuel supplies (7,300 gallons), navigation equipment, and weapons used to support drug shipments. The operations are a continuation of the Trump administration’s broader campaign to crack down on narcotics trafficking in Latin America, reflecting an increasingly militarized approach to combating organized crime in the region.

US Social & Political Developments

Senate Rejects War Powers Measure

The US Senate rejected a War Powers resolution on Wednesday that sought to curb President Donald Trump’s authority to conduct military operations against Iran without explicit congressional approval. Introduced by Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), the resolution would have directed the president to remove US forces from hostilities against Iran within 30 days unless authorized by a declaration of war or specific Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). The measure failed in a 47–53 vote, largely along party lines in the Republican-controlled Senate, falling short of the simple majority needed to advance. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) was the only Democrat to vote against the measure. Following the Senate’s lead, the House of Representatives also rejected a similar measure this Thursday , in a tight 212–219 vote. The votes occurred as the US and Israel continued an air campaign against Iran that began on February 28th. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated the operation “is just getting started” and could last up to eight weeks . This was the second major War Powers challenge of 2026; a similar effort to restrict military action against Venezuela also failed in the Senate in January.

Trump Replaces Kristi Noem as DHS Secretary

President Donald Trump announced this Thursday that he is firing Kristi Noem as the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and nominating Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin to replace her. The “final straw” to replace Noem was her combative testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee on March 3rd. Additionally, Noem claimed Trump personally approved a $220 million taxpayer-funded DHS ad campaign that prominently featured her; Trump stated he “never knew anything about it.” Other incidents that contributed to Noem’s ouster were the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens, Alex Pretti and Renee Good, by federal agents in recent Minnesota protests and delays in FEMA’s disaster relief funding. The leadership change is scheduled to take effect on March 31st. Senator Mullin must still be confirmed by the Senate, but may serve as Acting Secretary while his nomination is formally pending . He has served as the junior U.S. senator from Oklahoma since 2023 and was previously a U.S. representative for 10 years. Mullin is also a former professional MMA fighter, a citizen of the Cherokee Nation, and a staunch supporter of Trump’s immigration policies. Trump has reassigned Noem to be the Special Envoy for the “Shield of the Americas,” a newly created security initiative focused on the Western Hemisphere.

Corporate/Sector News

Iran War’s Impact on Energy Prices

The US-Iran war is reshaping global market dynamics, primarily through energy prices and inflation expectations. After the initial strikes that hit nearly 2,000 Iranian targets and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the S&P 500 barely moved, closing flat on the first trading day and demonstrating the market’s resilience. The largest market reaction has been in energy, where Brent crude jumped more than 8 percent initially and has since risen about 22% to nearly $90 per barrel (and WTI crude exceeding $90, as mentioned above) amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. The LNG and natural gas markets have also come under pressure, with European and Asian benchmark prices climbing as buyers brace for potential disruptions to cargoes transiting the Strait and as several LNG facilities and related export infrastructure in the Middle East have come under threat during the conflict. Higher energy prices are raising inflation risks, with each $10 increase in crude estimated to add about 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points to inflation, currently around 2.4%, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. Global markets have been more sensitive than U.S. equities, with international equities declining as the US dollar strengthened.

Pentagon Announces Deal with OpenAI Following the Anthropic Fallout

In late February 2026, OpenAI signed a high-profile agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense to deploy its artificial intelligence models on classified military networks. This deal followed a highly publicized fallout between the Department and rival AI firm Anthropic. The Pentagon severed ties with Anthropic after the company refused to remove its own safeguards against surveillance and autonomous weapons. The administration subsequently labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk.” OpenAI’s swift move to take the contract previously held by Anthropic sparked intense criticism from civilian users and staff members, leading to reports of users switching to rival services. Critics and former employees pointed out that the contract language requires OpenAI to allow “any lawful use” by the military, arguing that current laws could be interpreted to allow the very surveillance OpenAI claimed to prohibit. Following the backlash, CEO Sam Altman announced on March 2nd that OpenAI was working with the government to add specific language to the contract to further clarify protections against domestic surveillance.

South Korean Stock Market Plunges and Triggers Chip Selloff

The South Korean stock market experienced a historic “flash crash” during the first week of March , characterized by a record 12% single-day plunge on Wednesday, followed by a volatile recovery. On Tuesday, the KOSPI fell 7.24% as markets reopened following a national holiday, rattled by escalating conflict in Iran. The following day, the KOSPI plummeted 12.06% to close at 5,093.54, its worst daily percentage loss in history; the tech-heavy KOSDAQ fell even further, dropping 14%. During the free fall, circuit breakers were activated twice to halt trading. However, by Thursday, the market had staged a massive 9.63% rebound, marking the best single day since 2008 as margin calls were cleared. As a major oil importer, South Korea was uniquely vulnerable to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A high concentration of leveraged retail bets (margin debt reached ₩32 trillion) triggered a cascade of forced selling once prices dipped . Prior to the crash, the KOSPI had doubled in 12 months due to an AI boom. Major chipmakers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix suffered double-digit declines during the rout.