Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded over the last month in the Middle East/North Africa, Asia (ex-China/India/Japan), Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead.
Top News This Month
- Indirect U.S.– Iran negotiations in Geneva produced a tentative breakthrough, with both sides agreeing on a set of “guiding principles.”
- The United States is moving from regime-change operation to hands-on economic stewardship in Venezuela, pairing political transition with an energy-sector reboot that could reshape hemispheric markets.
- South Korea’s National Assembly has moved to fast-track legislation tied to a $350 billion investment commitment in the United States as Seoul seeks to avert the reimposition of 25 percent U.S. tariffs on key exports.
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A proposed U.S.–Democratic Republic of Congo minerals partnership has triggered growing domestic opposition as President Félix Tshisekedi seeks to exchange access to vast reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, and coltan for security support and infrastructure investment.
Middle East & North Africa
- Indirect U.S.– Iran negotiations in Geneva produced a tentative breakthrough, with both sides agreeing on a set of “guiding principles.” The two countries will begin exchanging draft texts, signaling the most constructive diplomatic movement since last year’s failed talks, though officials stressed that a final deal remains distant. The discussions, mediated by Oman, come amidst a dual-track strategy in which Washington has reinforced its regional military posture while warning of potential strikes if diplomacy collapses. Tehran has paired engagement with deterrent messaging, including military drills near the Strait of Hormuz and renewed insistence that its missile program is non-negotiable. Markets reacted immediately to the reduced near-term risk of conflict, with oil prices falling, underscoring how closely energy flows and regional stability are tied to the negotiations. The core gap persists with the United States seeking broader limits on Iran’s military capabilities, while Iran is willing to confine talks to the nuclear file in exchange for sanctions relief and preservation of enrichment. Domestic pressures are rising on both sides. Iran has suffered significant economic strain as well as violent crackdowns on the country’s recent, widespread protests. Additionally, Washington’s credibility of coercive diplomacy is being put to the test in Oman. The continued military signaling and unresolved scope of the agreement mean the process remains fragile even as a structured path emerges.
- The Gaza ceasefire remains fragile as military escalation, political ultimatums, and humanitarian constraints unfold in parallel. Israel carried out new airstrikes that Palestinian officials say killed at least 11 people, describing them as responses to Hamas’s violations of the truce, while Hamas accused Israel of repeated breaches and rejected a reported 60-day disarmament deadline tied to a U.S.-backed reconstruction initiative, warning that renewed war would have regional consequences. At the same time, the limited reopening of the Rafah crossing has highlighted the severe humanitarian bottleneck, with only a fraction of medical evacuees and returning civilians able to pass amid tight screening procedures, delays, and conflicting implementation rules, leaving tens of thousands still seeking urgent care outside the enclave. With both sides trading blame, disarmament remaining a core unresolved demand, and Washington preparing a multibillion-dollar reconstruction and stabilization plan, the ceasefire increasingly functions less as a pathway to resolution than as a tenuous pause shaped by coercive diplomacy, ongoing violence, and acute civilian suffering.
- Saudi Arabia has moved to cement its role as the principal economic backer of Syria’s post-Assad leadership through a multibillion-dollar investment push spanning telecommunications, aviation, water, and airport infrastructure, marking the largest inflow of capital since Western sanctions were lifted in late 2024. The package includes a roughly $800 million fiber-optic network intended to link Syria into regional data routes, a joint low-cost carrier majority-owned by Damascus set to begin operations in 2026, and a multibillion-dollar fund to develop Aleppo’s airport capacity. Additional energy and desalination projects will aim to ease chronic water shortages. For Syria’s interim government, the deals are central to translating political change into visible economic recovery after 14 years of war. For Riyadh, they represent a strategic bid to shape the country’s reconstruction, expand regional connectivity, and anchor influence in a pivotal Levantine state with Washington’s tacit approval.
- Saudi Arabia is deepening its economic and strategic partnership with Turkey through a roughly $2 billion investment in large-scale solar projects, the first phase of a broader renewable energy program that could reach 5,000 MW of combined wind and solar capacity and supply power to more than two million Turkish households. The agreement, signed during President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Riyadh, will see Saudi firms finance and build the plants while Ankara guarantees long-term power purchases at record-low prices. This structure both attracts international funding and anchors Turkey’s energy transition. The inclusion of a 50 percent localization requirement is expected to channel orders to domestic manufacturers and has already lifted Turkish renewable energy stocks. Beyond the immediate market reaction, the project highlights Riyadh’s use of outward investment to expand regional influence and position itself as a leading player in cross-border clean energy, while giving Turkey foreign capital, cheaper electricity, and deeper integration into emerging Middle Eastern energy networks.
- Market Implications: MENA markets are being pulled in two directions: geopolitical tensions are still high, but new investment deals in certain countries are creating opportunities. In Iran, talk of renewed U.S. diplomacy and potential business agreements could ease sanctions and lower regional risk, though disagreements with nuclear inspectors still worry investors. The partial reopening of the Rafah border helps humanitarian efforts and gives Egypt’s logistics sector a small boost, but ongoing strikes keep currencies and insurance markets volatile. Saudi Arabia is putting money into rebuilding Syria and funding solar projects in Turkey, which is generally positive for construction firms, banks, utilities, and telecom companies—assuming projects are executed well, and Turkey’s currency stays stable. Overall, markets in the region should stay cautious because of ongoing political risks, but there are some bright spots where new investment is flowing.
Latin America and the Caribbean
- The United States is moving from regime-change operation to hands-on economic stewardship in Venezuela, pairing political transition with an energy-sector reboot that could reshape hemispheric markets. Following the January capture of Nicolás Maduro, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that Washington is supervising oil revenues, requiring the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez to submit monthly spending plans as proceeds from U.S.-directed crude sales are funneled toward state salaries and essential imports. The first $500 million was already transferred under tightly controlled conditions. At the same time, Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s visit to Caracas signaled the effective end of the U.S. oil embargo and a push for American firms to restore production in a country that holds the world’s largest proven reserves but currently pumps a fraction of its historic output. The strategy aims to stabilize Venezuela’s economy, gradually loosen political controls, and anchor a longer-term democratic transition. The operation has triggered congressional debate over presidential war powers and raises questions about the durability of reforms and investor appetite in a still-fragile political environment.
- Haiti entered a new phase of its prolonged political crisis on February 7 as the Transitional Presidential Council (CPT), created in 2024 to steer the country toward elections and contain escalating gang violence, formally ended its mandate and transferred authority to Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, leaving him as the sole executive figure amid continuing uncertainty over a broader governing framework. The council’s tenure was marked by internal divisions, corruption allegations, and a worsening security environment in which armed groups now control most of Port-au-Prince. Mass displacement has reached roughly 1.4 million people, and thousands were killed in 2025 alone. The handover followed tensions between CPT members and Fils-Aimé, U.S. diplomatic pressure and sanctions against several council figures, and the visible deployment of U.S. naval assets near the capital. Fils-Aimé now faces the challenge of organizing Haiti’s first elections in a decade in a context where no president has been elected since the 2021 assassination of Jovenel Moïse. Legislative institutions have lapsed and an under-resourced UN-backed international security mission remains far short of its planned troop levels.
- Cuba’s government has signaled willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States while rejecting negotiations conducted under pressure, as tensions rise over Washington’s efforts to restrict the island’s access to oil amid its worst economic crisis in decades. President Miguel Díaz-Canel said talks must occur on the basis of sovereignty and equality, while U.S. officials maintained that diplomatic contacts are ongoing and increased economic pressure, including threats of tariffs on countries supplying fuel to Cuba, is intended to force concessions. The tightening energy shortage has intensified power outages, transport disruptions, and fuel rationing, deepening hardships for a population already facing shortages of food, medicine, and basic services. Although much of Havana continues to function through informal adaptations and limited alternatives, the collapse of public transport and rising costs have left many relying on long walks or improvised arrangements, prompting comparisons among residents to the severe “Special Period” of the 1990s. Cuban authorities attribute the crisis primarily to U.S. sanctions, while outside observers also cite structural economic weaknesses and the post-pandemic decline in tourism.
- U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro held a two-hour meeting at the White House that concluded with an unexpectedly cordial tone despite a year of public tensions, sanctions on Petro, and sharp disagreements over migration, counter narcotics policy, and regional security. Both leaders described the talks positively and signaled interest in renewed cooperation against drug trafficking, particularly along the Colombia-Venezuela corridor that’s central to U.S. security concerns, while Petro also proposed joint investment in clean energy as a basis for rebuilding bilateral ties. The encounter followed the U.S.-backed removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, an event that had heightened fears of further regional confrontation, and was accompanied by a symbolic gesture of extraditing an alleged Colombian criminal leader to the United States. Although no concrete agreements were announced and sanctions issues were not publicly addressed, the meeting underscored the strategic interdependence between Washington and Bogotá on counter narcotics and suggested a tentative de-escalation in a relationship that remains shaped by ideological differences and shifting U.S. policy in the Caribbean basin.
- Panama’s Supreme Court has voided the long-standing concession held by a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison to operate key ports at both ends of the Panama Canal, ruling that the contract violated the constitution by granting excessive privileges, limiting competition, and placing public interest decisions in private hands. The decision introduces new legal and operational uncertainty for one of the world’s most strategic trade corridors. Panamanian authorities have moved to install a temporary operator linked to Denmark’s A.P. Moller Maersk while a new concession process is prepared, but CK Hutchison has launched arbitration and warned of further legal action to defend its treaty-protected investment rights. The dispute unfolds against the backdrop of intensifying U.S.- China competition over control of global logistics infrastructure, with Washington previously backing the sale of the port assets to a U.S.-led consortium and Beijing opposing the transaction. Panama continues their balancing act on domestic legal rulings, continuity of canal operations, and external geopolitical pressure.
- Market Implications: Latin America and the Caribbean are being repriced through a security‑ and trade‑focused lens. In Venezuela, the U.S. approach—linking stability and transition efforts to oil‑related revenue—has coincided with higher production and export volumes, supporting Gulf Coast refiners but keeping a sanctions‑risk premium in PDVSA‑linked assets. Regional politics adds further noise: Haiti remains in institutional limbo, while Cuba’s worsening energy shortages are prompting tentative signals toward U.S. dialogue amid pressure on tourism and airline inflows. Colombia’s diplomatic thaw with Washington improves the backdrop for COP and local rates if cooperation rhetoric continues. Investors should expect a cautiously constructive but headline‑sensitive environment, with energy flows supporting selective credits while political uncertainty keeps spreads and FX prone to volatility. The S&P Latin America 40 Index has done very well so far this year, gaining more than 18%.
Asia & Pacific (ex-Chine/India/Japan)
- South Korea’s National Assembly has moved to fast-track legislation tied to a $350 billion investment commitment in the United States as Seoul seeks to avert the reimposition of 25 percent U.S. tariffs on key exports, after President Donald Trump accused the country of failing to implement a previously agreed trade deal. The creation of a special parliamentary committee with a 30-day mandate reflects mounting pressure from Washington, which has linked the tariff threat to delays in passing the investment framework and to broader concerns over non-tariff barriers, while South Korean officials have launched urgent diplomatic outreach to U.S. counterparts to demonstrate compliance. The dispute has unsettled financial markets and highlighted the vulnerability of major export sectors such as autos and semiconductors, which underpin a bilateral trade relationship worth more than $130 billion annually, even as the scope of Trump’s tariff authority remains subject to a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling.
- South and Southeast Asia have produced divergent political outcomes that nonetheless underscore the persistence of entrenched power structures and the limits of democratic transition in the region. In Bangladesh, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party secured a two-thirds parliamentary majority in the first vote since the 2024 uprising that removed Sheikh Hasina, positioning Tarique Rahman to become prime minister with pledges to restore democratic norms, implement term limits, and pursue economic and anti-corruption reforms in what is expected to bring short-term political stability. In Thailand, a decisive victory by Anutin Charnvirakul’s conservative Bhumjaithai Party reflected the continued dominance of patronage networks and provincial political dynasties over reformist movements, whose support remained concentrated in urban areas and whose leaders again face legal challenges that could sideline them from politics. In Myanmar, meanwhile, a tightly controlled election has consolidated the military’s hold on power amid a civil war stalemate and limited external pressure, leaving the international community debating whether continued isolation or conditional engagement through ASEAN mechanisms offers the more realistic path to reducing violence and opening space for a negotiated political settlement.
- TSMC plans to produce advanced 3 nanometer semiconductors at its second fabrication plant in Kumamoto, marking Japan’s entry into the manufacturing of the most cutting-edge chips used in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The project is estimated at $17 billion and is supported by increased Japanese government subsidies and aligned with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic security and technology strategy. This reflects a broader global effort to diversify semiconductor supply chains beyond Taiwan while meeting rapidly growing AI-driven demand. For Tokyo, the investment strengthens domestic chipmaking capacity and deepens industrial cooperation with Taiwan, while for TSMC, it helps address resource constraints at home and mitigate geopolitical risk linked to the concentration of advanced production on the island, even as the company continues to keep its most advanced processes primarily in Taiwan.
- Vietnam and the European Union have upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, placing the EU on the same diplomatic tier as the United States, China, and Russia and signaling a shared effort to diversify trade and reinforce cooperation amid rising U.S. tariff pressure and broader uncertainty in the global economic order. While the move carries no binding security commitments, it is expected to deepen collaboration in areas such as critical minerals, semiconductors, defense, infrastructure, and supply chain resilience, building on a free trade agreement that has already made the EU Vietnam’s largest trading partner in Southeast Asia. For Hanoi, the elevation supports its strategy of reducing dependence on the U.S. export market and sustaining export-led growth, while for Brussels it strengthens access to a fast-growing manufacturing hub and advances its push to expand partnerships in Asia, despite ongoing differences over human rights and Vietnam’s ties with Russia.
- Market Implications: Asia ex‑China/India/Japan markets are being driven mainly by trade tensions and fast‑moving political events. U.S. tariff threats toward Korea have increased KRW volatility and widened performance gaps between exporters and defensive local sectors. Political shifts in Bangladesh, Thailand, and Myanmar are shaping currency stability and investor appetite, with Bangladesh seeing a short‑term boost while Thailand and Myanmar remain risk‑sensitive. Meanwhile, improved supply‑chain diversification—such as TSMC’s new advanced production in Japan and the upgraded EU–Vietnam partnership—is supporting investment flows into upstream tech, ports, and manufacturing across the region. Overall, the region should remain selectively constructive but headline‑driven, with tariff uncertainty and political transitions keeping FX and equity volatility elevated while supply‑chain investment continues to support longer‑term opportunities in tech, manufacturing, and logistics. The MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index has gained more than 10% year-to-date.
Sub-Saharan Africa
- The United States is preparing to deploy about 200 troops to Nigeria in a training and advisory role to support local forces fighting Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province, marking an expansion of security cooperation following U.S. airstrikes against suspected militant targets and ongoing surveillance operations. Nigerian authorities have stressed that the American personnel will not take part in combat, while Washington has framed the move as part of a broader counterterrorism partnership, amid political pressure from the Trump administration over claims that Christians are being targeted by militants, an assertion the Nigerian government rejects, noting that both Muslim and Christian communities have been affected by the violence. The deployment reflects a renewed U.S. military focus on West Africa’s longest-running insurgency, which continues to destabilize the country’s northwest despite years of conflict and poses wider regional security concerns.
- The African Union summit in Addis Ababa has highlighted both renewed calls for reform of global governance and the growing impact of external rivalries and shifting U.S. policy on the continent’s strategic environment. UN Secretary General António Guterres urged structural changes to international financial institutions and the UN Security Council to give Africa greater representation, alongside expanded support for peace operations, climate adaptation, and value-added control over critical minerals, framing these as essential to correcting systemic inequalities. At the same time, Gulf competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates across the Horn of Africa has deepened regional fault lines by backing rival actors in conflicts from Sudan to Somalia, forcing African governments to avoid alignment while protecting their own security and economic interests. The summit has also been shaped by uncertainty over the United States’ more transactional approach under President Donald Trump, including major aid cuts, tariff pressure and a shift toward bilateral resource and security deals, prompting many African states to hedge by strengthening ties with alternative partners while emphasizing multilateralism, strategic autonomy and a greater role for Africa as a normative actor in global affairs.
- A proposed U.S.–Democratic Republic of Congo minerals partnership has triggered growing domestic opposition as President Félix Tshisekedi seeks to exchange access to vast reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, and coltan for security support and infrastructure investment, a strategy aligned with Washington’s broader effort to counter China’s dominance in critical mineral supply chains. Critics in Congo, including opposition figures, civil society groups, and church leaders, argue the negotiations lack transparency, risk undermining sovereignty, and may entrench a model in which the country remains a raw material supplier while local communities see limited economic benefit and face displacement, environmental damage, and continued insecurity in the rebel-held east. Analysts expect intensifying U.S.–China competition over resources in Congolese territory, but note that the success of any agreement will depend on whether it delivers tangible development gains and contributes to stabilizing conflict zones that currently host many of the most valuable mining sites.
- The United States has granted a short-term extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act until the end of 2026, preserving duty-free access for eligible sub-Saharan African exports but introducing new uncertainty as the program is set to be reshaped to align with the Trump administration’s America First trade policy. The agreement underpins more than $100 billion in annual U.S.–Africa trade and supports key sectors such as textiles, autos, and agriculture, yet its brief renewal contrasts with previous decade-long extensions and comes amid tariffs, aid cuts, and political tensions with major beneficiaries, including South Africa and Nigeria. Washington has signaled that future participation will require greater market access for U.S. goods and stricter reciprocal terms, prompting concern among African governments and businesses and accelerating efforts by some countries to diversify economic partnerships, particularly toward China and other external partners.
- Market Implications: Sub‑Saharan African assets are adjusting to a mix of geopolitical shifts and emerging industrial‑policy themes. Nigeria is back in focus after the U.S. confirmed a non‑combat troop deployment to support security training—helpful for sentiment in Eurobonds and oil‑linked equities, though it underscores continued insurgency risks that keep FX volatility and local funding costs elevated. At the African Union summit, the 2026 water‑and‑sanitation agenda points to future blended‑finance and ESG issuance opportunities, although sovereign debt sustainability remains the main constraint. The one‑year extension of AGOA through 2026 offers short‑term relief for key exporters, but the limited duration tempers confidence in long‑dated investment.
Suggested Reading
Sanam Vakil and Alex Vatanka, Foreign Affairs
Facing economic collapse, a cornered Cuba is forced into dialogue with the US
El Pais
Gen Z Got Fair Elections in Bangladesh—but Got Crushed at the Ballot Box
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations
Opposition grows in Congo over US mineral deal
Saleh Mwanamilongo, AP News
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