Weekly Market Update

Global Market News

Global Equities Make Gains

Global equities made gains this week as investors are pricing in a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week up 1.59% and 2.03%, respectively, both notching new highs, while the Dow Jones gained 0.95% on the week. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note declined slightly to 4.06%, while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased slightly on the week to $62.11 per barrel. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, declined, closing Friday at 14.76.

Job Creation Comes Up Short

Signs of a cooling labor market and a cooler-than-expected inflation report this week have strengthened investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that 911,000 fewer jobs were created between March 2024 and March 2025 than previously estimated, effectively erasing nearly half of the job growth during that period. This discrepancy stems from lower response rates to BLS surveys, which form the basis of initial data, and an outdated birth-death model used to estimate business openings and closures. Despite these revisions, markets remain optimistic about rate cuts, interpreting the updated jobs data as further evidence of a cooling labor market.

International Developments

Political Leader Shakeups

This week brought notable leadership transitions and unrest in France, Japan, and Nepal. Prime Minister François Bayrou failed a vote of confidence in parliament earlier this week. He has since been replaced by former defense minister Sébastien Lecornu, a former member of the conservative Les Républicains party. His appointment signals both President Macron’s intention to reach compromise with the divided National Assembly and to maintain a minority government. Also this week, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned after just one year in office, following intense pressure from within his own party after suffering historic defeats in two key parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, in Nepal, Prime Minister Sharma Oli was forced to both resign and flee the capital city of Kathmandu as widespread protests shut down the Nepalese government and torched several government buildings and politicians’ homes. The Nepalese military has been called in to restore order and quell the protests, which erupted in response to the government’s social media ban.

Israel Strikes Qatar

Israel launched an airstrike against the Hamas delegation in Doha, Qatar’s capital city. The Hamas delegates were in Doha with mediators working on a US-backed ceasefire proposal; Israel justified the attack as a legitimate strike against Hamas leaders who were orchestrating the war in Gaza. Five lower-ranking members of the delegation were killed, as well as one Qatari security guard. Israel gave only last-minute notice to the US and Qatar of the attack. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” and that the strikes served neither American nor Israeli interests. The airstrike is expected to prompt the Gulf States to reconsider the normalization of relations with Israel and security guarantees by the United States.

Bolsonaro Convicted for Coup Attempt

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of attempting a coup to remain in power following his electoral defeat in 2022. He was sentenced to 27 years in prison, though he will remain on house arrest while his lawyers prepare an appeal. The sentencing has prompted significant backlash from multiple sources; large protests in Brazil have turned out in support of Bolsonaro, allies in Brazil’s congress have proposed an amnesty law for the former president, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has promised an unspecified American response.

US Social & Political Developments

Conservative Activist Charlie Kirk Shot and Killed in Utah

On Wednesday, conservative activist Charlie Kirk was fatally shot at a speaking engagement at Utah Valley University, prompting national mourning and political debate. The suspected shooter, Tyler Robinson, was arrested 33 hours later after initial confusion over suspects. Vice President Vance flew the late activist and his widow to Phoenix aboard Air Force 2. Kirk’s death follows a string of politically motivated attacks in the U.S., including the murder of Minnesota lawmakers, an arson attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s home, and two assassination attempts on President Trump. These incidents highlight growing concerns over political violence and deepening polarization across the U.S.

ICE Raids Hyundai Plant

On September 4, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted a massive raid at the Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America site near Savannah, Georgia, detaining 475 individuals, most of whom were South Korean nationals working under questionable visa statuses. The plant, a joint venture between Hyundai and LG Energy Solution, was part of a broader Trump administration initiative to revitalize American manufacturing in the South. The raid, dubbed the largest single-site enforcement operation in Homeland Security history, sparked diplomatic tensions, with South Korea expressing “concern and regret” and dispatching Foreign Minister Cho Hyun to Washington to negotiate the workers’ release. A chartered plane was sent to repatriate approximately 300 workers, who are returning voluntarily rather than being formally deported.

Corporate/Sector News

Paramount Looks to Secure Warner Bros Deal

Paramount Skydance is reportedly preparing a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in a transaction valued at approximately $70 billion. This purchase would include several major entertainment companies, such as HBO, Cartoon Network, truTV, Hanna-Barbera, and other Warner Bros. studios. The proposed acquisition is drawing scrutiny over potential antitrust concerns, and is being positioned as an alternative to CEO David Zaslav’s plan to split the company into separate entities. Following the news, WBD stock surged by nearly 33%, marking its largest single-day gain since 2005.

Murdoch Family Reaches Settlement on Succession Battle

A years-long succession battle within the Murdoch family has ended with Lachlan Murdoch securing control of Fox Corp. and News Corp., ensuring the empire’s conservative direction after Rupert Murdoch’s death. Under the settlement, siblings James, Elisabeth, and Prudence Murdoch will sell their shares and exit the trust structure in exchange for roughly $1.1 billion each, while Lachlan inherits full voting power through a new family trust. Rupert’s younger daughters, Grace and Chloe, will benefit financially but hold no influence. The deal dissolves the old trust, resolves litigation in Nevada courts, and preserves Lachlan’s leadership over Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and other outlets that continue to play a significant role in U.S. politics.

Robinhood and AppLovin Added to the S&P Index

Robinhood Markets and AppLovin will be added to the S&P 500 index on September 22, alongside Emcor Group, as part of the benchmark’s quarterly rebalancing. They will replace Caesars Entertainment, MarketAxess Holdings, and Enphase Energy, which will shift to the S&P SmallCap 600. Robinhood’s inclusion marks a milestone for the fintech sector, reflecting its rise from a commission-free trading disruptor to a company with growing market influence, while AppLovin has surged on the strength of its mobile advertising technology. Shares of both companies spiked on the news, with Robinhood climbing more than 15% and AppLovin gaining over 12%, as index-tracking funds and institutional investors prepared to adjust their portfolios.

Corporate Profile

Oracle: Cloud and AI Contracts Fuel Explosive Growth

Oracle (ORCL) is a global leader in enterprise software and cloud infrastructure, now riding a powerful wave of AI-driven demand. The company has stunned investors with a 359% year-over-year surge in remaining performance obligations to $455 billion, locking in long-term revenue streams through multi-billion-dollar cloud contracts. Oracle’s Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and rapidly expanding multi-cloud partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are fueling its growth trajectory, with OCI revenue projected to rise from $18 billion in 2025 to $144 billion by 2030. With its aggressive push into AI workloads and a robust order book, Oracle is repositioning itself as a top-tier cloud competitor poised for sustained expansion.

Image of the Week

Video of the Week

Palestinians Begin a Perilous Flight From Gaza City

Source: The Wall Street Journal