CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

by | Jun 18, 2025 | Crossroads

At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics

Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded over the last month in the Middle East/North Africa, Asia (ex-China/India/Japan), Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead.

Top News This Month

  • On June 13th, Israel attacked Iran across at least 15 locations—U.S. President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and posted social media messages suggesting the U.S. was considering joining Israel’s bombing campaign on Iran. Tehran has threatened to attack U.S. bases in the Gulf if the U.S. intervenes. 
  • Colombian opposition presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay was critically wounded in an assassination attempt during a campaign event in Bogotá.
  • Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance reported that U.S.-bound exports jumped 43.1 % year‑on‑year to $61.6 billion in January–May.
  • During a tense Oval Office meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump presented South African President Cyril Ramaphosa with unsubstantiated video footage claiming a “genocide” against white South African farmers, a claim Ramaphosa vehemently denied.

Middle East/North Africa

  • On June 13th, Israel attacked Iran across at least 15 locations—including Tehran, Isfahan, and Natanz. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, relocated to a safe site, declared that Israel had “started the war,” and ordered retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Senior Iranian officials revealed that Iran was caught off guard by Israel’s early morning strikes due to the mistaken belief that Israel would wait until after nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled for June 15th in Oman. The attacks, which destroyed air defenses, missile infrastructure, and parts of the Natanz nuclear facility, triggered panic and exposed major intelligence failures. Israel and Iran continue to exchange attacks, as fears of a wider war are heightening. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and posted social media messages suggesting the U.S. was considering joining Israel’s bombing campaign on Iran. Tehran has threatened to attack U.S. bases in the Gulf if the U.S. intervenes.
  • Last week, Israeli forces intercepted the Gaza-bound aid vessel, Madleen, in international waters, seizing its 14 passengers and crew. Four activists—including Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg—accepted immediate deportation, but eight others refused and remained in detention. French European Parliament member Rima Hassan and Brazilian activist Thiago Ávila were briefly placed in solitary confinement, according to Israeli human rights group Adalah. The detained activists were reportedly sent back to their home countries at the end of last week. The boat, organized by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, had left Catania, Sicily, on June 1st carrying what Israel termed “less than a single truckload” of supplies. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar dismissed the voyage as a “public relations stunt,” while Defense Minister Israel Katz branded Thunberg “antisemitic.” Activists accused Israel of “kidnapping” them and violating international law. The incident highlights continuing efforts to breach the naval blockade imposed on Gaza.
  • On May 31st, eight OPEC Plus members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates, announced plans to accelerate oil production for the third consecutive month, increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The decision reflects a strategic shift led by Saudi Arabia, which will raise its production ceiling to approximately 9.5 million barrels daily in response to fellow members like Iraq and Kazakhstan exceeding their quotas. The move is influenced by a stable global economic outlook and by political dynamics, including the renewed U.S.-Saudi relationship under President Donald Trump, whose administration has encouraged lower oil prices to combat inflation. On the other hand, the Israel-Iran conflict has raised major concerns about regional supply. Last Friday, oil jumped to nearly $80 per barrel after Israel’s initial airstrikes. In OPEC’s monthly report released on Monday, the group did not mention the Israel-Iran conflict and left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged, saying the economic outlook was robust despite trade concerns.
  • On June 10th, Israel launched missile strikes on Yemen’s key port city of Hodeidah, targeting two piers it claims were used by Iran-backed Houthi rebels for weapons transfers. The Israeli military, which confirmed the attack, warned it may impose an “aerial and naval blockade” unless the Houthis cease their missile and drone attacks on Israel, which have escalated since the Gaza war began in October 2023. The airstrike followed a failed Houthi missile launch toward Israel earlier that day. Hodeidah, located on Yemen’s western coast, is a vital hub for humanitarian aid, and the attack threatens to further destabilize aid delivery to millions of Yemenis.
  • The foreign ministers of Greece and Egypt—George Gerapetritis and Badr Abdelatty—announced a joint commitment to safeguard the status and legal rights of St. Catherine’s Monastery in Egypt, one of the world’s oldest continuously operating Christian monasteries. Founded in the 6th century and located at the foot of Mount Sinai, the UNESCO World Heritage site holds religious significance for Christians, Muslims, and Jews, marking the Biblical site where Moses received the Ten Commandments. The announcement follows a controversial Egyptian court ruling last week ordering Orthodox monks to vacate nearby lands, including vineyards and gardens long used by the monastery, on the basis that they were illegally occupied. The ruling prompted diplomatic discussions, with Egypt affirming that the monks would retain access to the monastery and its sacred spaces, while Greece emphasized the site’s emblematic Greek Orthodox heritage.
  • Market Implications: The recent Israel-Iran attacks have had a significant impact on regional markets, primarily through disruptions to energy and transportation sectors, with major indices in the region seeing sharp declines. Foreign capital is being channeled into safer GCC and Saudi defense equities, as well as into safe-haven assets like gold. Though there has been a spike in oil prices, OPEC+’s expected increase in production has dampened Brent’s war-risk rally. Meanwhile, Israel’s precision strike on Yemen’s Hodeidah port and its warning of a complete blockade have revived shipping risk in the Red Sea, with rising war-risk premiums along the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint squeezing Gulf logistics margins and undercutting Egypt’s Suez Canal toll revenues. 

Latin America & the Caribbean

  • Colombian opposition presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay was critically wounded in an assassination attempt during a campaign event in Bogotá on June 7th, reigniting fears of a violent past marked by political killings in the 1980s and 1990s. The attack, carried out by a 15-year-old assailant allegedly paid to shoot Uribe, comes amid a surge in violence linked to drug-financed armed groups, with homicide rates up 20.9% and kidnappings up 34.8% since the 2016 peace deal. Colombian President Gustavo Petro acknowledged reduced security on the day of the attack and has ordered increased protection for opposition figures, blaming global crime syndicates for fomenting chaos. The incident has prompted multiple candidates to pause campaigning, highlighting growing political tensions ahead of the May 2026 elections and concerns about threats to Colombia’s democracy.
  • At the end of May, Venezuela’s government, led by Nicolás Maduro’s ruling coalition, claimed a sweeping victory in regional and legislative elections boycotted by key opposition leader María Corina Machado and marked by sparse voter turnout estimated by officials at roughly 42%. The elections, held in Caracas, Zulia, and other major cities, lacked independent monitoring and were widely criticized as manipulated, with Maduro’s alliance reportedly winning more than 80% of legislative seats and governorships in 22 of 23 states, including the vital oil-rich state of Zulia. Machado and other opposition figures urged abstention to delegitimize the vote, citing previous falsified election claims by Maduro and ongoing political repression involving over 900 political prisoners. The contested elections underscored Venezuela’s deep political crisis, with state-controlled institutions enforcing Maduro’s power amid divided opposition and international skepticism.
  • On June 1st, Mexico held judicial elections with a record-low turnout of just 13%, where over 20% of ballots were spoiled or left blank, yet Morena, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s ruling party, secured all nine seats on the Supreme Court and gained significant influence over other key judicial bodies. Despite the nonpartisan framework, Morena controlled candidate vetting committees and circulated “cheat sheets” to guide voters, ensuring their preferred candidates, closely linked to former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, dominated the results. The new judiciary, dubbed “cherry-coloured” after Morena’s party color, will take office in September, consolidating the party’s grip on Mexico’s judiciary amid growing concerns over weakened checks and balances and potential infiltration by criminal groups. This consolidation of power risks undermining Mexico’s democratic institutions and economic prospects, with opposition parties vowing to challenge the election and business groups warning it may deter investment and complicate trade relations under the USMCA agreement.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled against Mexico in a lawsuit claiming that American gun manufacturers, including Smith & Wesson, aided and abetted the illegal trafficking of firearms to Mexican drug cartels. Mexico argued that despite having only one legal gun store nationwide, its territory was flooded with U.S.-made high-powered weapons funneled through negligent manufacturers and dealers, which the gun industry contested by emphasizing federally regulated sales and background checks. Justice Elena Kagan wrote that Mexico’s complaint failed to plausibly allege that the gunmakers knowingly supported unlawful sales, effectively dismissing the case. This decision underscores the court’s stance on limiting liability for manufacturers under existing U.S. federal law and has significant implications for cross-border gun violence policy debates between the U.S. and Mexico.
  • Suriname held general elections where neither the incumbent Progressive Reform Party (VHP) nor the opposition National Democratic Party (NDP) won a majority in the 51-seat National Assembly, with preliminary results showing 17 seats for VHP and 18 for NDP. By June 1st, five smaller parties holding the remaining 16 seats formally joined a coalition with NDP leader Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, positioning her to become Suriname’s first female president with a 34-seat majority. The coalition faces the challenge of managing Suriname’s emerging oil and gas wealth, notably the $12.2 billion GranMorgu offshore project slated to start production in 2028, with recoverable reserves estimated at 750 million barrels and expected revenues of up to $26 billion. Under outgoing President Chandrikapersad Santokhi, Suriname reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio from 146.4% in 2020 to 86.6% in 2025 and slowed inflation from 59.1% to 8.7%, while Santokhi’s “Royalties for Everyone” program promised citizens $750 linked to oil income, reflecting the country’s transition to an energy-driven economy.
  • Market Implications: Latin American assets are navigating a complex risk landscape this week: Mexico’s fiscal outlook darkened after the U.S. Supreme Court dismissed its $10B lawsuit against U.S. gunmakers, pushing Mexico’s Congress to identify alternative security funding, likely widening MXN sovereign spreads. Meanwhile, Mexico’s 13% turnout in its first judicial elections raises concerns over legal certainty and may dampen foreign investment appetite, despite broadly stable macroeconomic fundamentals. Mexican equities have declined over the last month, but remain up nearly 30% year-to-date, according to the MSCI Mexico IMI 25/50 Index. In Venezuela, reports of ballot-stuffing and opposition arrests escalate the risk of renewed sanctions, threatening PDVSA-linked Eurobond gains and potentially straining dollar liquidity for Caracas-based banks. Latin American equity markets continue to perform well this year, with the year-to-date return across regional markets at more than 25%, according to iShares Latin America 40 ETF. 

Asia (ex-China/India/Japan)

  • Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance reported that U.S.-bound exports jumped 43.1 % year‑on‑year to $61.6 billion in January–May, lifting America’s share to 26.8% of Taiwan’s $229.9 billion total and pushing China’s share down to 28.1%—its first sub‑30% reading in 24 years. May alone saw a record $15.5 billion in shipments to the United States, up 87.4%, as firms front‑loaded orders ahead of President Trump’s threatened 32 % “reciprocal” tariff announced in April, which has now paused for 90 days. The American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan urged Washington to drop existing and proposed levies and pursue a comprehensive trade pact covering technology transfer, IP protection, and supply‑chain security, while calling for faster U.S. arms deliveries and a double‑taxation accord. President Lai Ching‑te’s government, seeking to cut long‑standing dependence on China, has promised larger U.S. purchases and investments; outward investment in China has already fallen from 83.8% of Taiwan’s total in 2010 to 7.5% in 2024, with the United States becoming the top destination since 2023. Opposition Kuomintang leaders warn that over‑reliance on Washington could expose Taiwan to Trump’s evolving tariff strategy.
  • Lee Jae-myung was inaugurated as South Korea’s president following the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol in April over his failed imposition of martial law. Lee, a former lawyer with a rags-to-riches background, won the presidency with 49.24% of the vote, defeating conservative Kim Moon-soo (41.15%) and the New Reform Party’s Lee Jun-seok (8.34%). In his inaugural address, Lee pledged to restore democracy and revive the struggling economy, which is projected to grow less than 1% this year amid U.S. tariffs. He appointed key Democratic Party figures, including Kim Min-seok as Prime Minister and Wi Sung-lac as national security adviser. Lee, who previously served as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi province, emphasized pragmatic governance and unity across ideological lines. Despite his appeal rooted in personal resilience, Lee remains controversial, facing trial for alleged election law violations, though presidential immunity delays proceedings. His administration begins amid political division, economic uncertainty, and heightened global tensions.
  • Cambodia’s Defense Ministry confirmed that Cambodia and Thailand agreed to pull troops back to positions agreed in 2024 following a deadly border clash on May 28th that killed a Cambodian soldier. Talks were led by Thai Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, aiming to ease tensions along the 817-kilometer un-demarcated border mapped by France in 1907. Cambodia’s Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn urged resolution via the International Court of Justice (ICJ), while Thailand rejected ICJ jurisdiction and favored bilateral negotiations. The dispute reignited memories of the 2008–2011 temple-related clashes that caused over a dozen deaths. In response to the latest incident, Thailand reduced operating hours at 10 border checkpoints, including Sa Kaeo’s busiest, citing security concerns. The situation tests ties between new prime ministers Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Thailand and Hun Manet of Cambodia, successors to the formerly close leaders Thaksin Shinawatra and Hun Sen.
  • Vietnam scrapped its two-child policy to combat falling birth rates, a trend affecting much of Southeast Asia, including Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. The Vietnamese Communist Party had already removed penalties for third children in March and will make public education free from kindergarten to high school starting in September to ease child-rearing costs. Thailand’s fertility rate dropped to 1.0 in 2024—lower than Japan’s—and births fell below 500,000 for the first time since 1949. Singapore’s fertility rate hit 0.97 in 2023 despite expanded parental leave policies, while Malaysia saw an 11.5% year-on-year drop in births in early 2025 and introduced infertility treatment subsidies for 1,300 couples. Economic concerns loom large, with Thailand and Malaysia facing a shortened “demographic dividend” and risking slowed growth. Nazir Razak of the ASEAN Business Advisory Council urged policies to attract skilled workers and raise wages.
  • Market Implications: Taiwan’s export profile is undergoing a sharp shift, with U.S.-bound shipments now comprising roughly 30% of total exports as China’s share falls to a 24-year low—highlighting accelerating supply-chain decoupling; Taiwan’s TWD Index has strengthened to a three-year high, supporting Taipei tech equities on renewed U.S. demand, though ongoing tariff risks keep market volatility elevated. In South Korea, newly inaugurated liberal President Lee Jae-myung’s fiscal loosening and minimum-wage hikes have buoyed retailers and renewable firms via proposed consumption subsidies, even as bond markets price in wider deficits and prospects of a U.S. tariff reset. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s repeal of its longstanding two-child policy offers structural upside for consumer and property sectors, but near-term strain from maternity incentives is likely to pressure public finances. Regional markets continue to demonstrate resilience despite global trade tensions, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index up more than 12% year-to-date. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

  •  On May 21, during a tense Oval Office meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump presented South African President Cyril Ramaphosa with unsubstantiated video footage claiming a “genocide” against white South African farmers, a claim Ramaphosa vehemently denied. Trump criticized South Africa’s January land expropriation law, which seeks to address historical inequalities by redistributing land, asserting it led to the violent persecution of white farmers, despite South African officials refuting these accusations. The meeting highlighted ongoing U.S.-South Africa tensions, including U.S. tariffs, aid cuts, and diplomatic expulsions, linked to disputes over South African policies and Trump’s support for resettling white Afrikaners in the U.S. With white South Africans constituting just 7.3% of the population but owning most farmland, Ramaphosa emphasized that land confiscation is not occurring and that South Africa’s high crime rates predominantly affect young black men.
  • Rwanda announced its withdrawal from the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) after being blocked from assuming the rotating chairmanship at a summit in Equatorial Guinea, citing what it called an unjust imposition of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) influence. The dispute centers on Rwanda’s alleged support for the M23 rebel group, which seized key eastern DRC cities like Goma and Bukavu earlier this year; the DRC, the U.S., France, and a 2024 UN report accuse Rwanda of backing up to 4,000 troops alongside the rebels, claims Rwanda denies. ECCAS leaders condemned Rwanda’s aggression, deciding to keep Equatorial Guinea as chair until the conflict is resolved, while Congolese officials called for stronger regional action against Rwanda. Amid ongoing U.S.-mediated peace talks expected to culminate this month, Rwanda maintains its forces are stationed to secure its border and prevent conflict spillover.
  • The U.S. State Department officially determined that Sudan’s military used chemical weapons during its civil war, triggering sanctions. These sanctions include restrictions on U.S. exports and financing to Sudan’s government, although key figures such as military chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Daglo were already under U.S. sanctions. The conflict, which began in April 2023 between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has caused tens of thousands of deaths and displaced 13 million people, creating the world’s worst humanitarian crisis according to the UN. Despite recent military gains by the army in Khartoum state, the U.S. calls on Sudan to cease chemical weapons use and adhere to the Chemical Weapons Convention.
  • Zimbabwe announced it will ban the export of lithium concentrates starting January 2027 to compel foreign mining firms to develop local refining operations. Companies like Bikita Minerals (a unit of Sinomine Resources Group) and Arcadia Lithium are currently building facilities to process locally mined ore into higher-value lithium sulphate. Zimbabwe has rapidly become a key lithium concentrate supplier, providing about 14% of China’s lithium imports in 2024, with major Chinese firms such as Chengxin Lithium Group and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt investing billions in local mining. The move follows a broader regional trend of African nations seeking greater economic value from mineral resources by restricting raw material exports.
  •  The death of blogger Albert Ojwang has sparked protests across Kenya and widespread condemnation amid ongoing concerns over extrajudicial killings by Kenyan security forces. Kenyan President William Ruto acknowledged that blogger Albert Ojwang died “at the hands of the police,” reversing earlier official claims that Ojwang died by suicide after hitting his head in custody. Ojwang, 31, was arrested on June 6th in western Kenya for allegedly defaming the deputy police chief and died two days later in Nairobi; an autopsy revealed injuries consistent with assault. The Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA) has launched an investigation, naming five officers involved, while Police Inspector General Douglas Kanja apologized for initial false statements, and Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen vowed a thorough probe.
  • Market Implications: U.S.–South Africa tensions intensified following President Trump’s confrontational meeting with President Ramaphosa, prompting concerns over potential AGOA preference rollbacks that could widen South Africa’s current account deficit. Rwanda’s departure from ECCAS due to the M23 dispute jeopardizes regional integration and may disrupt logistics for Kivu mining operations, with ripple effects on DR Congo-linked agribusiness and cement stocks through elevated transport costs and equity risk premiums. Zimbabwe’s 2027 ban on lithium concentrate exports is fast-tracking local processing, boosting battery-metal juniors in the short term, though Chinese buyers may seek alternative supply, tempering long-run price expectations. 

Suggested Reading

The Israel-Iran Conflict Is a Dilemma for the Gulf States

World Politics Review

How U.S. Tariffs Are Rewiring Latin American Trade

Antonio Ortiz-Mena and Diego Marroquin Bitar, Americas Quarterly  

Democracy Wins a Referendum in South Korea

The New Yorker

Short-Term Thinking Is Driving the US’s Pivot Away From Africa

Antony Sguazzin, Bloomberg

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