Assessing the Prospects of 2019: Part II
Following our initial assessment of next year’s prospects, we discuss below some reasons that make us believe next year may be better than 2018. It seems that until this past summer, market sell-offs were followed by buying tactics (buying the dip). Recently the...From Black Friday to Good Friday and Back: Economic Indicators, Trading Opportunities, and the Shakeup of Expectations
Economic indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Consumer Confidence Index, and the price of oil could be thought as signals of future economic activity. Last year the Eurozone experienced a revival of growth that lifted up expectations and resembled...Headwinds vs. Tailwinds: An Initial Assessment of Undercurrent Trends Affecting the Market Outlook for 2019
As we are approaching the start of 2019, we could identify five important tailwinds and an equal number of headwinds going into play in the new year. Overall, we believe – at this stage – that the tailwinds will prevail. Let’s start then with the tailwinds. The first...Victor (as in Frankenstein), Prometheus (and Pandora), and Sisyphus (and the Rock): Defiance, Derivatives, and Midas
Victor Frankenstein was the creator of the monster and not the monster itself. Prometheus’ gift of fire to humans was offset by Pandora’s box. Sisyphus’ condemnation to keep rolling the rock up the slope may not be as absurd as it initially looks. Before we integrate...The Financial Ecosystem and the Dollar Trajectory: International Reserves, the Eurodollar Market, and Fiscal Policies
The international financial system is based on credit. At the heart of that system is the bond market whose global size exceeds $100 trillion. Just in the US, the bond market is above $40 trillion, and the US Treasuries play a central role in that given that they are...Sign Up for Our Publications
