Historical Anachronisms and Fallacies: The Vengeance of Complacency
First of all, allow us to start with some clarifications/definitions: Heraclitus Fallacy: The belief that history imposes no constraints. Failing to comprehend the past not only signifies ignorance, but is also idiotic. Parmenides Fallacy: Comparing the present with...Shifting Risks and Unintended Consequences for Portfolios: We Live in a Zero-Sum World
We are now under the auspices of a zero-sum game world due to negligible productivity growth rate. Such a shift can be seen as a symptom of trade wars. We believe that the underlying cause can be found in financial manipulations engineered more than twenty years ago....Deteriorating Economic Sentiment: Down the Path of Guicciardini’s Maxims
Yesterday the IMF downgraded its projections for economic growth. In its announcement it warned that such action is the result of self-inflicted wounds created by a “precarious” trade war. At a time when central banks are trying to be inventive again via monetary...False Positive Signals Meet Immanuel Kant: Recessionary Indications & Portfolio Considerations
Composite models that assess the risk of a recession in the next 12 months indicate that the probability of a recession happening in the next 12 months has fallen slightly. However, such reading in our humble opinion is mistaken due to a false positive signal related...The Mispricing of Assets, the Repricing of Expectations, and the Incineration of Reason: Investment Strategy in the Valley of the Missing Link
What do the US and UK political developments as well as the stock market valuation have to do with the Peloponnesian War fought between Athens and Sparta (431-404 BCE)? In all cases, observers want to know the future as unique (possibly extraordinary) developments are...Sign Up for Our Publications
