Hope is Not a Plan. Disruption is Not a Thesis.
“Don’t confuse genius with a bull market.” HB Neill There probably isn’t an industry that historically gets more impacted by disruption than the media space. The current narrative and environment is well known to anyone: stronger broadband service, the convenience of...When Isaiah Berlin Dined with Xi Jinping: Extrapolating Facts about The Great Wall of Steroids
The invitation sent by Isaiah Berlin left the date open. The city was supposed to be London. However, Xi Jinping responded with one precondition: An assessment by Berlin of Biden’s dogma, especially after their first phone call on February 10th. To that Berlin...When Moore Isn’t Enough: Part I
It seems like every day there’s a new story discussing the global shortage in semiconductors/chips, affecting everything from smartphones, to computers, to data centers and medical devices (examples here, here, here, and here). Perhaps no industry better serves as the...Stochastic Paths and Market Abnormalities: Rootlessness and the Contingencies of Cycles of Tragedies
In 1942, Quincy Wright published a two-volume work where, while drawing from distinct disciplines such as anthropology, history, psychology, and mathematics, he tried developing a precise formula that would enable policymakers to calculate the probability of war. It’s...Portfolio Construction in an Era of Transformation: When Tragedians & Mozart Met the Inescapable Smash of Ineluctable Forces, Part II
In our commentary two weeks ago, we described how the confidence and sectoral momenta interact and create the four quadrants of market expectations. In that same commentary we also presented eight forces (consumer confidence, monetary conditions, fiscal conditions,...Sign Up for Our Publications
