Historical Incidents and Fallacies: Market Assessment Within the Underlying Currents
Warning: This is not a commentary about warnings. Forecast: Why should anyone desire to be proven wrong? Market Indexes: Distorted and inadequate to capture market movements let alone the undercurrent fundamentals. In the not too distant past, when we look at the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities advanced on the week, underpinned by signs that trade tensions between the United States and the European Union are easing, generally solid earnings reports and upbeat economic growth data from the US. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month: Global Impact: Trump's Rhetoric Threatens the Rules Based Order US President Trump has created global concerns over his imposition of tariffs on China, the EU, Canada, Japan, and Mexico...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action US stock markets were relatively unchanged for the week despite continued fears of a trade war, with the Dow ending +0.2%. The S&P 500 rose by less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq declined by less than 0.1%. European stocks turned lower on Friday, as the...
Emerging Markets Overview
This commentary is an overview of Emerging Markets (EMs). We begin with a brief review of their recent trends, then explore common factors that affect most every EM (such as the strengthening of the USD), then look at factors that will affect different markets...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities rose on the week despite elevated trade tensions, with US stocks ending the week less than 3% below all-time highs reached in January while Japanese stocks posted their best weekly gain in the past six months. Although the trade picture...
Trade Disputes, Emerging Markets, and Supply Chains: Rising Tensions and Conflict Inflation
Emerging and developed markets depend to some extent on a China-centric supply chain. As trade tensions between the US and China (as well as between the US and the EU) are rising, that supply chain is subject to interruptions. The more of those interruptions occur,...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to set up border holding camps for asylum seekers in a deal that could stave off a collapse of her government but puts her legacy of welcoming refugees and preserving open borders on the line. She now faces problems...
Global Synchronized Growth? Credit Markets and Earnings Potential
With little doubt, emerging markets have entered into bear territory with the Chinese index down more than 20% since January. This is happening at a time when central banks are unwinding their QE-induced liquidity and while corporate leverage stands at an all-time...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action China's central bank reduced the amount of cash some lenders must hold as reserves, trimming the required reserve ratio for some banks by half a percentage point. The aim was to support small and micro enterprises, and to further promote the...
