A Preliminary Assessment of Q4
We are of the opinion that the output gap in the US by the end of the year will range between 2.5-3.5%. However, for the European Union (EU), we expect the output gap to be higher than that. Such an assessment implies elevated unemployment rates for both the U3 and...
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global equities drop Global equities were down on the week after a tech selloff on Tuesday. By the end of trading on Friday, markets had recovered much of the losses incurred at the beginning of the week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note...
Covid-19 and the Day After
Most Dangerous Waters in the World Are in the Mediterranean James Stavridis - Bloomberg Read the full article here There are three reasons Mr. Stavridis outlines to argue that the Mediterranean is the most dangerous waters of the world. First, Greece and Turkey have...
Market Melt-up and the Fed’s Magic Flute in the Courtyard of Aristophanes
The most recent Fed’s decision to turn policy on its head and pursue higher inflation targets for the sake of stimulating the economy, reminds us of a grand strategy without tactics, which simply is no strategy. The reason for this is the fact that the Fed has no...
Weekly Market Update
September 4, 2020 Global Market News Global equities dropThis week, global equities fell as US mega-cap technology stocks came under selling pressure. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained almost unchanged at 0.721%. The price of a barrel of West Texas...
Covid-19 and the Day After
U.S. Election Priced as Worst Event Risk in VIX Futures History Michael P. Regan, BloombergRead the full article here Election season has traditionally been a source of volatility in the markets, and this year is no exception. One way investors hedge against this risk...
Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: North America This month both the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention...
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global equities hit record highs This week, global equities rose to new highs. The S&P 500 Index is near to the end of its best-performing month of August since 1986. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 0.72% after the Fed's big...
Covid-19 and the Day After
Time for Action on America’s Darwinian Debt Struggle Robin Wigglesworth, Financial Times Read the full article here Since March, the Fed has unleashed a dizzying display of relief measures aimed at mitigating the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. These...
Invert, Always Invert
“All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.”...
