Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the unraveling of America’s traditional expertise-based foreign policy as political loyalists reshape global engagement, while a revived “concert of powers” vision signals a shift toward great-power accommodation and...

The Markets at a Junction: The Dollar, Seneca, the Flows of Capital, and Japan, Part II

When a market (or any institution) lacks an anchor, a myriad of negative repercussions unfold, starting with the lack of tranquility. The absence of the latter creates uncertainty, and the effect of the uncertainty is turmoil. In the following graph, we see the impact...

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and rhetoric, especially towards China and the EU, are major drivers of continued market uncertainty and volatility over the past two weeks. This is evidenced by the elevated VIX (hitting a high of over 53...

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine how Europe’s strategic identity is being tested as it stands at a crossroads between deeper alignment with a U.S.-led alliance and economic entanglement with China, amid rising tariff battles and an evolving doctrine of...

CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East/North Africa Last week, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared the seizure of extensive Gaza territory, creating "buffer zones" and effectively isolating Rafah, a city once sheltering over 250,000 Palestinians, with military maps showing a...

CROSSROADS: US, Europe, China & India

North America On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariff plan, imposing 10%–50% tariffs on nearly all foreign imports using a controversial formula based on trade surpluses, only to contradict prior statements over the...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global Equities Rebound Global equities gained this week, attempting to recover some losses from last week's correction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased 5.70% and 7.29%, respectively, and the Dow Jones rose 4.95% on the week. The U.S....

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the accelerating disintegration of the postwar global order as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to unravel decades of economic integration and strain the transatlantic alliance, while scholars warn of a...

The Wooden Nickel: Tarrified

The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than formal proclamations or projections....

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive global tariffs, imposed across virtually all the United States’ major trading partners, have ignited fears of a full-blown trade war and potential global recession. The tariffs could raise prices, invite retaliation, slow...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities approach record-highsGlobal equities approached record-high territory this week on expectations of a fast rollout of several Covid-19 vaccines and the hopes that more fiscal stimulus is on its way soon. The yield on the US 10-year...

Covid-19 and the Day After

Starting next week, we will begin alternating our Covid-19 and the Day After publication with a new commentary summarizing articles that highlight the critical geopolitical trends impacting our lives and portfolios. We hope you will enjoy it! As Covid-19 cases are...

Covid-19 and the Day After

As Covid-19 cases are rising and many countries experience record heart-breaking numbers of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths, and while we are awaiting the production and distribution of vaccines, we would like to share with you below a summary of four...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market Update Global equities make slight gainsGlobal equities were slightly up this week, despite the fact that Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed down 0.73% and 0.68% respectively on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury Note yield fell 7 basis points to 0.83%, and...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities make gainsGlobal equities made gains this week after promising vaccine news hit the press. The S&P 500 rose more than 2% over the week and the US 10-year Treasury note rose 11 basis points to 0.89%. The price of a barrel of West...

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