Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the unraveling of America’s traditional expertise-based foreign policy as political loyalists reshape global engagement, while a revived “concert of powers” vision signals a shift toward great-power accommodation and...

The Markets at a Junction: The Dollar, Seneca, the Flows of Capital, and Japan, Part II

When a market (or any institution) lacks an anchor, a myriad of negative repercussions unfold, starting with the lack of tranquility. The absence of the latter creates uncertainty, and the effect of the uncertainty is turmoil. In the following graph, we see the impact...

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and rhetoric, especially towards China and the EU, are major drivers of continued market uncertainty and volatility over the past two weeks. This is evidenced by the elevated VIX (hitting a high of over 53...

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine how Europe’s strategic identity is being tested as it stands at a crossroads between deeper alignment with a U.S.-led alliance and economic entanglement with China, amid rising tariff battles and an evolving doctrine of...

CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East/North Africa Last week, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared the seizure of extensive Gaza territory, creating "buffer zones" and effectively isolating Rafah, a city once sheltering over 250,000 Palestinians, with military maps showing a...

CROSSROADS: US, Europe, China & India

North America On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariff plan, imposing 10%–50% tariffs on nearly all foreign imports using a controversial formula based on trade surpluses, only to contradict prior statements over the...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global Equities Rebound Global equities gained this week, attempting to recover some losses from last week's correction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased 5.70% and 7.29%, respectively, and the Dow Jones rose 4.95% on the week. The U.S....

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the accelerating disintegration of the postwar global order as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to unravel decades of economic integration and strain the transatlantic alliance, while scholars warn of a...

The Wooden Nickel: Tarrified

The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than formal proclamations or projections....

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive global tariffs, imposed across virtually all the United States’ major trading partners, have ignited fears of a full-blown trade war and potential global recession. The tariffs could raise prices, invite retaliation, slow...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities have mixed weekGlobal equities were a mixed bag this week. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.02%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed down 0.50% and 0.39%, respectively. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 1.62%...

Current Thoughts on Earnings and Sentiment

“It takes the character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.” – Charlie Munger Earnings season for the first quarter of 2021 has just begun and it promises to be one of the most interesting and...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities drop slightlyFollowing a record-breaking week, global equities declined this week. The S&P 500 ended the week down 0.13%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also dropped 0.46% and 0.25% respectively. The yield on the US 10-year...

Covid-19 and the Day After

Here is our take on the articles summarized below:  Though the pandemic has devastated the global economy over the last year, there are signs of a robust economic recovery. National leaders are taking the opportunity the pandemic has presented to rebuild cities and...

Some Thoughts on Inflation

“The cure for high prices, is high prices.” Inflation has probably been the most debated and discussed macroeconomic variable of the past year. It’s been hotly discussed for much of the past decade as hysteria over QE/unconventional monetary policy has absorbed more...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities make gainsGlobal equities made gains this week. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones were up 2.71% and 1.95% respectively, while the Nasdaq ended the week up 3.12%. The US 10-year Treasury dropped down a few bps to 1.66% at Friday’s...

Covid-19 and the Day After

Here is our take on the articles summarized below:  While a flurry of positive vaccine news, declining Covid-19 case numbers, and improved economic forecasts have created optimism for a return to “normal”, we are not out of the woods yet. New Covid-19 variants...

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